University of Southern California

CREATE Year 10/FY 2014 Call for White Papers

Date: December 19, 2012

CREATE, the DHS-sponsored Center of Excellence at the University of Southern California, seeks 2-3 page White Papers on research projects in risk analysis, economics assessment, and operations research in risk management. Awards of up to $100,000 per award are expected. The anticipated period of performance is 10/1/13 to 9/30/14.

White Papers must conform to the format provided HERE, and are due by
5pm PST January 15, 2013 to CREATE@USC.EDU.

CREATE's mission is to use research, education and outreach to help the nation deter, prevent and mitigate attacks and provide resilience. CREATE's mission now includes cyber threats and greater examination of natural disasters and major accidents. CREATE seeks innovative projects with high potential for research transition of results to homeland security practitioners. Proposed research projects must address one of the three interrelated themes described below. Preferred projects will use and expand direct liaisons with homeland security agencies and user groups. A project's ultimate success will be the creation of intellectual products that help the homeland security enterprise effectively and efficiently improve the nation's security. Proposers are referred to the CREATE website, http://create.usc.edu, for current and past projects so as to make their submissions as relevant, complementary, and integrated as possible.

1. Risk Analysis - Management of Risks from Intelligent, Adaptive Adversaries: extend game theory, risk analysis, terrorist preference modeling and decision analysis to account for the strategic nature of terrorist decision-making with regard to countermeasures; the integration of intelligence and data mining; explore cyber terrorism economic impact; risk perception and communication, including behavioral effects, transmission of fear, and the social amplification of risks.

e.g., describe clear transition paths and alignment between adaptive adversary models and specific risk models that support DHS components, conduct public and decision-maker risk perception surveys and impact of inoculation messages.

2. Economic Consequences and Costs: develop tools to assess consequences of terrorism, natural disasters and major accidents, especially their direct and indirect economic impacts, explore options for building resilience and business continuity, measuring non-market valuations, and the use of behavioral economics to examine the impact of how individuals respond to threats and hazards, including the role for alternative risk mitigation strategies.

e.g., conduct multi-disciplinary research (economics/computer scientists) to yield computational advances in high performance computing for economic analytic applications. Develop CGE models that permit fast and scalable for a wider variety of scenarios. DHS is interested in CGE models that are designed to run over a variety of parameter spaces, generate the associated space of CGE output estimates and able to generate distributions of CGE outcomes, which could then be resampled for other risk modeling needs.

3. Operations Research in Risk Management: investigate and apply new analytical approaches to assess the benefits of risk management programs across all hazards, threats and target domains and inform policy decisions; use complex system analysis to examine the effect of feedback mechanisms, such as the adaptive adversary and deterrence effects, etc.

e.g., develop tools that permit dynamic elicitation and capture of decision maker values / risk preferences and implications for integrating into Enterprise Risk Models, develop peer-reviewed standards for consequence measurement scales.

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