Detlof von Winterfeldt

Title/Position: 
Director of CREATE

Detlof von Winterfeldt is a Professor at the Daniel J. Epstein Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering of the Viterbi School of Engineering and a Professor of Public Policy and Management at the Price School of Public Policy at USC. In 2004 he co-founded the National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE), the first university-based center of excellence funded by the US Department of Homeland Security. 

He served as CREATE’s director from 2004 to 2008 and he was reappointed to this position in 2015.  In the interim, he was on leave of absence from USC as Director of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (2009-2012) and as Centennial Professor of the London School of Economics and Political Science (2008-2012).  Throughout his academic career he has been active in teaching, research, university administration, and consulting.  He has taught courses in statistics, decision analysis, risk analysis, systems analysis, research design, and behavioral decision research.  His research interests are in the foundation and practice of decision and risk analysis applied to the areas of technology development, environmental risks, natural hazards and terrorism.  He is the co-author of two books, two edited volumes, and author or co-author of over 120 refereed articles and chapter. He has served on many committees and panels of the U.S. National Academies and the U.S. National Science Foundation, including an appointment to the National Academies’ Board on Mathematical Sciences and their Applications.  He is an elected Fellow of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) and of the Society for Risk Analysis.  In 2000 he received the Ramsey Medal for distinguished contributions to decision analysis from the Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS. In 2009 he received the Gold Medal from the International Society for Multicriteria Decision Making for advancing the field. In 2011 The Council of IIASA elected him as Honorary IIASA Scholar and in 2012 he received the distinguished achievement award by the Society for Risk Analysis.

EDUCATION

1976         Ph.D.          University of Michigan, Ann Arbor - Mathematical Psychology

1971         M.S.            University of Hamburg, Germany - Psychology

1969         B.S.            University of Hamburg, Germany - Psychology

PROFESSIONAL APPOINTMENTS

2015-                           Director, National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) at the University of 

                                          Southern California

2015-                           Faculty Fellow, Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy, University of Southern California

2006-                           Professor of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Daniel J. Epstein Department of Industrial and Systems

                                          Engineering, Viterbi School of Engineering (USC)

1998-                          Professor of Public Policy and Management, Price School of Public Policy (formerly School of Policy, Planning, and

                                          Development, SPPD, USC)

2009-2012                   Director of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria (on leave from USC)

2008-2012                   Centennial Professor, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Management,

                                           Management Science Group, London, UK

2004-2008                   Director, National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE), USC (co-founder and

                                            co-director in the first year)

2003-2005                   Deputy Dean, SPPD, USC

2001-2003                   Associate Dean for Faculty Affairs and Research, SPPD, USC

1998-2005                   Director, Institute of Civic Enterprise, SPPD, USC

1997-1998                   Professor of Planning, SPPD, USC

1989-1990                   Visiting Professor, Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences, University of California at Irvine

1987-1988                   Chairman, Department of Systems Science, Institute for Safety and Systems Management (ISSM), USC

1987-1997                   Professor of Systems Science, Department of Systems Science, ISSM, USC

1986-1988                   Chairman, Research Center, ISSM, USC

1982-1987                   Associate Professor, Department of Systems Science, ISSM, USC

1978-1986                   Research Associate, Social Science Research Institute, USC

1975-1978                   Research Scholar, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

1973-1975                   Research Assistant, Social Science Research Institute, University of Southern California

1972-1973                   Research Assistant, Highway Safety Research Institute, University of Michigan

1970-1971                   Research Assistant, Engineering Psychology Laboratory, Human Performance Center, University of Michigan

SELECTED AWARDS

2013                            Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS, Best Publication Award 2013 (chapter in the award winning book “Portfolio

                                        Decision Analysis”)

2012                            Distinguished Achievement Award, Society for Risk Analysis

2011                            Honorary Research Scholar, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria (IIASA)

2010                            Society for Risk Analysis, best article award for issue-linked papers in the journal Risk Analysis in 2010

2009                            Gold Medal, International Society for Multi-Criteria Decision Making

2008                            Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS, Practice Award (Finalist)

2007                            Society for Risk Analysis, best article award in Decision Sciences in the journal Risk Analysis in 2007 (with Heather

                                        Rosoff)

2004                            Fellow, Institute for Operations Research and Management Science

2004                            Franklin Award for Outstanding Contributions to the School of Policy, Planning, and Development, USC

2003                            Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS, Practice Award (Finalist)

2000                            Frank P. Ramsey Medal for Distinguished Contributions to the Field of Decision Analysis, Decision Analysis

                                        Society of INFORMS

2000                            Distinguished Service Award, Society for Risk Analysis

1999                            Franklin Award for Outstanding Faculty, SPPD, USC

1997                            Edelman Laureate, INFORMS (Finalist of Edelman Competition)

1994                            Fellow, Society for Risk Analysis

1987                            USC Faculty Recognition Award, Phi Kappa Phi, Honorable Mention (for the book Decision Analysis and Behavioral

                                        Research)

1970                            Germany-US Exchange Scholarship and Fulbright Travel Scholarship (University of Hamburg - University of

                                        Michigan)

EDITORIAL BOARDS

2012-                        Member, Editorial Board, European Journal on Decision Processes

2005-                        Associate Editor, Decision Analysis

2003-2005                 Department Editor for Decision Analysis, Management Science

1998-2004                 Member, Editorial Board, Risk Decision and Policy

1997-2000                 Area Editor, Social Science and Decision Making, Risk Analysis

1991-2000                 Member, Editorial Board, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making

1988-2000                 Member, Editorial Board, Risk Abstracts

1988-2009                 Member, Editorial Board, Risk Analysis

1989-1994                 Associate Editor, Management Science

1982-1987                 Associate Editor, Operations Research

MEMBERSHIPS AND POSITIONS IN PROFESSIONAL SOCIETIES

1998-2000                   Chairman, Decision Analysis Society

1996-2001                   Member, Society for Medical Decision Making

1996-1998                   Chairman-Elect, Decision Analysis Society

1995-1996                   Council Member, Decision Analysis Society

1995-                                Member, INFORMS

1985-2005                   Member, Society for Judgment and Decision Making

1983-                                Member, Society for Risk Analysis

1980-1995                   Member, Operations Research Society of America

1980-1995                   Member, Institute for the Management Sciences

SELECTED SCIENTIFIC PANELS AND REVIEW BOARDS

2012-2013                   Member, Committee on Developing a Decision-Support Tool for Prioritizing New Vaccines, Institute of

                                              Medicine, National Academies, Washington, DC

2012-2013                   Member, Committee on Evaluating the Effectiveness of the Global Nuclear Detection Architecture, National

                                              Research Council, Washington, DC

2010-2012                   Member, International Advisory Committee, National Research Foundation, Republic of Korea

2009-2012                   Member, Research Advisory Committee, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Tokyo, Japan

2008-2012                   Member, Global Agenda Council on Catastrophic Risk, World  Economic Forum, Davos, Switzerland.

2008-2012                   Member, World Economic Forum, Global Agenda Council on Catastrophic Risks, Davos, Switzerland and Dubai,

                                              United Arabic Emirates.     

2008-2009                   Member, Advisory Panel for the Decision, Risk, and Management Science Program, NSF

2007-2013                   Member, Committee on Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Institute of Medicine, National Academies

2004-2006                   Member, Committee on Defense Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis, National Academies

2004                                  Member, Panel on Human Dynamics of Global Change, National Science Foundation (NSF)

2003-2006                   Member, Board on Mathematical Sciences and their Applications, National Academies

2003-2006                   Member, Senior Advisory Panel, Center for Global Security Research, Lawrence Livermore National

                                              Laboratories and the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Washington DC and London

2003-2005                   Member, Committee on the Transportation of Nuclear Waste, National Research Council

2002-2004                   Member, Committee on the Characterization and Transportation of Transuranic Waste, National Research

                                              Council

2001-2002                   Member, Committee on Alternatives for Controlling the Release of Solid Materials from Nuclear Regulatory

                                              Commission-Licensed Facilities, National Research Council

2000                                 Member, Panel on the EPA/NSF Program for Environmental Statistics, National Science Foundation and

                                              Environmental Protection Agency

2000-2001                   Member, Committee for the Impact of Low-Level Radioactive Waste Management Policy on

                                              Biomedical Research in the United States, National Research Council

1998-2000                   Member, Panel on Protecting the Health of U.S. Deployed Forces.  Board on Army Science and Technology,

                                               National Research Council

1997-1999                   Consultant, Committee on DOE’s Decision-Making Processes, Board on Radioactive Waste Management,

                                               National Research Council

1995                                 Member, Selection Panel for the National Center on Environmental Decision Making and the

                                               National Center for Global Change, NSF

1990-1992                    Member, Advisory Panel for the Decision, Risk, and Management Science Program, NSF

1990                                 Chairman, Committee of Visitors, Social and Economic Sciences, NSF

1989                                 Member, Selection Panel for the Presidential Young Investigator Awards (Social and Economic Sciences), NSF

1987-1988                     Member, Committee on Risk Perception and Risk Communication, National Academy of Sciences,

                                               Washington, DC

1985-1986                   Consultant, Board on Radioactive Waste Management, National Research Council, Washington, DC

EXPERT TESTIMONY

2005              Testimony on Terrorism Risk Assessment before the U.S. House of Representatives (November 17, 2005)

1998              Testimony on Risk Analysis and Risk Communication before the California Seismic Safety Commission (July 16, 1998)

1990-2000      Several expert testimonies in trials concerning health and environmental risks

SELECTED INTERVIEWS

2014                            Kazakhstan National Television: “Surface to Air Missile Attacks on Commercial Airplanes,” July 21, 2014.

2011                            International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy, and International Relations. 

                                         “IIASA: An Institute for Diplomacy Through Science.”  (Vo. 57, 2011, pp. 141-152)

2009                            Der Standard, Austria, “Erste Addresse bei Globalen Sorgen,” January 7, 2009

2008                            National Defense Magazine, “Public Still in the Dark When it comes to Dirty Bomb Threat” (June 10, 2008)

2008                            National Defense Magazine, “Congress Still Undecided on How to Protect Airliners from Missiles”

                                         (March 15, 2008)

2007                            Fox News Special Report, “Impacts of Dirty Bombs on the US Economy” (August 8, 2007)

2007                            Los Angeles Times, “Port Strategy Tackles Trade after an Attack” (July 21, 2008)

2006                            Scientific American, “A Better Defense” (October, 2006)

 2006                           National Defense Magazine, “More Questions than Answers on Counter-Missile Technology” (October, 2006)

 2006                           Los Angeles Times, “Pondering the Costs of Terrorism” (July 10, 2006)

 2006                           Science Magazine, “Should Academics Self-Censor Their Findings on Terrorism?” (May, 2006)

 2005                           Fire Chief Magazine, “University Study Prioritizes Terror Targets” (September 23, 2006)

SELECTED CONSULTANCIES

2005-2011                   Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA

2009-2011                   National Center for Food Protection and Defense, University of Minnesota

2008                                 Decision Research, Eugene, OR

2006-2008                   University of Massachusetts, Amherst , MA

2004-2005                   Southern California Edison

2003-2006                   Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

2002-2004                   U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC

1998                                 Science Applications International Corporation, Abingdon, MD

1996-2002                   California Department of Health Services, Berkeley, CA

1993-1996                   U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC

1993-1996                   Fluor Daniel Inc., Irvine, CA

1991-1995                   Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL

1990-1996                   Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM

1989-2003                   Battelle-Pacific Northwest Laboratories, Richland, WA

1988-1989                   Chevron Corporation, San Francisco, CA

1987-2000                   Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM

1986-2000                   Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA

1985                                 Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC

1984-1990                   Nuclear Research Facility, Juelich, Germany

1982-1996                   Joint Research Center of the European Communities, Ispra, Italy

1980                                 U.S. General Accounting Office, Washington, DC

RESEARCH CONTRACTS AND GRANTS

(Approximate dollar amounts in brackets; total funding at USC of approximately $30m)

2014-2015                   “SMART Methodology for Evaluating Radiological Isotope Identification Devices,”  Battelle, Pacific Northwest

                                               Laboratories, Richland, WA ($167,000)

2013-2015                   Co-Investigator, “Layered Defenses Against Terrorism Using Decision and Risk Analysis”, Department of

                                               Homeland Security through the Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events,

                                               University of Southern California ($100,000 per year).

2013-2014                   Principal Investigator, “Improved DNDO Testing and Evaluation - Decision Analysis and Experimental Design,”

                                               Domestic Nuclear Detection Organization, Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC ($550,000)

2011-2013                   Co-Investigator, “Using Decision Analysis to Counter Terrorism”, Department of Homeland Security through

                                               the Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events, University of Southern California

                                               ($100,000 per year).

2009-2010                   Principal Investigator, “Using Risk Assessment, Economic Assessment, and Risk Management to Improve

                                               Preparedness for Terrorist Attacks and Natural Disasters,” Center for Risk and Economic

                                               Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE),

                                               University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (subcontract to IIASA, $84,000).

2008                                   Principal Investigator, “Using Risk Assessment, Economic Assessment, and Risk Management to Improve

                                               Preparedness for Terrorist Attacks and Natural Disasters,” National

                                               Preparedness Directorate, Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC ($950,000).

2008-2011                   Principal Investigator, “CREATE Homeland Security Educational and Career Development Program,”

                                               Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC. ($300,000)

2008                                   Principal Investigator, “Understanding Risk Perception and Improving Risk Communication,” Battelle Pacific

                                               Northwest Laboratories, Richland, WA ($600,000).

2007-2008                   Principal Investigator, “Estimating behavioral changes for transportation modes after terrorist attacks in

                                               London, Madrid, and Tokyo.” Metropolitan Transportation Research Center,

                                               University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA. ($90,000).

2007-2008                   Principal Investigator, “CREATE Homeland Security Educational and Career Development Program,”

                                               Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC. ($480,000)

2007-2008                   Principal Investigator, “Homeland Security Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events”. 

                                               Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC. (Years 4-6, $12 million)

2007-2008                   Principal Investigator, “Risk and Economic Analysis Support for the National Biodefense Analysis and

                                               Countermeasures Center.”  Battelle National Biodefense Institute, Frederick, MD ($600,000)

2007-2011                   Principal Investigator, “Utility of critical infrastructure vulnerability assessment methodologies,” National

                                               Center for Food Defense and Protection, Minneapolis, MN. ($150,000).

2007                                   Principal Investigator, “Risk analysis and risk management,” Immigration and Customs Enforcement,

                                               Washington, DC ($25,000)

2007                                   Principal Investigator, “Macroeconomic analysis of a shutdown of the US borders to goods, travel, and

                                               migration” Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC. ($50,000).

2005-2009                   Principal Investigator, “Support for the National Center for Foreign Animal and Zoonotic Disease Defense,”

                                               Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas ($880,000).

2004-2007                   Principal Investigator,  “Homeland Security Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events.” 

                                               Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC. (Years 1-3; $12 million)

1999-2008                   Principal Investigator.  “Hospital rehabilitation decision analysis.”  Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake

                                               Engineering Research (MCEER), State University of New York at Buffalo (NSF Center), Buffalo, New York. ($220,000)

1999-2002                   Co-Principal Investigator.  “Improving infrastructure decisions.”  Institute for Civil Infrastructure Systems

                                               (ICIS), New York University (NSF Center), New York. ($100,000)

1998-2002                   Principal Investigator, “Probability elicitation with groups of experts.”  National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. ($220,000)

1993-1996                   Principal Investigator, "Utility theories with status quo and reference effects."  National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. ($125,000)

1991-1996                   Principal Investigator, “Integrated EMF Risk Management Project.”  Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA. ($750,000)

1990-1993                   Co-Principal Investigator, "Analysis of strategic government decisions."  National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. ($150,000)

1989-1991                   Principal Investigator, "Communicating multiattribute risks." International Life Sciences Institute, Washington, DC. ($90,000)

1989                           Principal Investigator, "Development of a decision framework for improving the environmental impact statement."  Council on Environmental Quality, Washington, DC. ($25,000)

1988-1989                   Co-Principal Investigator, "Risk scales."  Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA. ($60,000)

1986-1989                   Co-Principal Investigator, "A methodology to evaluate the indirect health and safety risks of regulation."  National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. ($90,000)

1986-1988                   Principal Investigator, "The significance of value structures for formal evaluation."  National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. ($150,000)

1986-1988                   Co-Principal Investigator, "Development of a framework to constructively involve stakeholders in a comprehensive evaluation of alternatives involving complex technological issues."  Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA. ($60,000)

1985-1987                   Principal Investigator, "Risk communication."  Environmental Protection Agency, subcontract with Putnam-Hayes, Washington, DC. ($25,000)

1985-1989                   Principal Investigator, "Description, review and evaluation of the scientific bases of assumptions made in risk assessment."  National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. ($300,000)

1985-1987                   Principal Investigator, "Communicating risk information to laypersons: a review and assessment of the literature."  National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. ($150,000)

1985-1986                   Co-Principal Investigator, "Development of a workbook for structuring objectives."  Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA. ($50,000)

1984-1986                   Principal Investigator, "Risk perception, risk acceptance, and risk communication: An assessment of the state of knowledge." National  Science Foundation, Washington, DC. ($150,000)

1982-1983                   Principal Investigator, "On the relevance of the value-utility distinction for decision analysis."  National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. ($75,000)

1982                           Co-Principal Investigator, "Development of a multiattribute prioritization system for evaluating research products and systems." US. Army Corps of Engineers, Champaign, IL. ($25,000)

1981-1983                   Co-Principal Investigator, "Towards developing methods for understanding public responses to risky technologies."  National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. ($250,000)

1981-1982                   Co-Principal Investigator, "Validation of multiattribute utility structures."  Advanced Research Projects Agency, Washington, DC. ($200,000)

1979-1981                   Co-Principal Investigator, "Decision analysis and behavioral decision theory."  Office of Naval Research, Washington, DC. ($100,000)

1979-1980                   Co-Principal Investigator, "Development of a methodology for the evaluation of risk estimates for nuclear electric power plants."  Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM. ($75,000)

PUBLICATIONS: Books by the National Academies

As a member of several National Research Council committees, von Winterfeldt contributed to the following books published by the National Academy Press:

National Reseeach Council (2013). Performance metrics for the global nuclear detection architecture.  Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

Institute of Medicine (2013).  Prioritzing vaccines, Vol. II. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

National Research Council (2013).  Environmental decisions in the face of uncertainty.  Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

National Research Council (2007). Defense modeling, simulation, and analysis: Meeting the challenge.  Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

National Research Council (2006).  Going the distance? The safe transport of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste in the United States. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

National Research Council (2004).  Improving the characterization program for contact-handled transuranic waste bound for the waste isolation pilot plant.  Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

National Research Council (2002).  The disposition dilemma: Controlling the release of solid materials for Nuclear Regulatory-licensed facilities. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

National Research Council (2001).  The Impact of low-level radioactive waste management policy on biomedical research in the United States.  Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

National Research Council (2000).   Strategies to protect the health of the deployed U.S. forces. Washington, D.C: National Academy Press.

National Research Council (1998).  Decision making in the U.S. Department of Energy’s Enviromental Management Office of Science and Technology.  Washington, D.C: National Academy Press.

National Research Council (1988). Improving Risk Communication.  Washington, D.C: National Academy Press.

PUBLICATIONS:  Books and Edited Volumes

Edwards, W., Miles, R.F., & von Winterfeldt, D. (Eds.) (2007).  Advances in Decision Analysis: From foundations to applications.  New York: Cambridge University Press. 

Bier, V. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (Eds.) Terrorism Risk Analysis.  (2007). Special Issue of the Journal Risk Analysis, 27, pp. 503-634.

von Winterfeldt, D. & Edwards, W.  (1986). Decision analysis and behavioral research.  New York: Cambridge University Press.

Keeney, R.L., Renn, O., von Winterfeldt, D., & Kotte, U.  (1984).  Die Wertbaumanalyse.  Entscheidungshilfe fuer die Politik  (Value tree analysis:  Decision support for public policy).  Munich, West Germany:  High Tech Press.

PUBLICATIONS: Articles in Refereed Journals

Garcia, R. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (2015). Defender-attacker decision tree analysis to combat terrorism. Risk Analysis, under revision.

Siebert, J., von Winterfeldt, D., and John, R.  (2015). Identifying and structuring the objectives of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Decision Analysis, an INFORMS Journal, in print.

Montibeller, G. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (2015). Cognitive and motivational biases in decision and risk analysis.  Risk Analysis, 35, 7, pp. 1230-1251.

Levin, S., Frank, A., Ramo, J., Lo, A., Goud Collins, M. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (2014). Dealing with femtorisks in international relations. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, Early Edition, www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1400229111. 

von Winterfeldt, D.  (2013).  Improving the policy relevance of global systems analysis. EURO Journal of Decision Processes, 1, pp. 59-76.

von Winterfeldt, D. (2013).  Bridging the gap between science and decision making.  Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, 110, pp. 14055-14061.

von Winterfeldt, D., Kavet, R., Peck, S., Mohan, M., & Hazen, G., (2012). The value of environmental information without control of subsequent decisions. Risk Analysis, 32, 12, pp. 2113-2132.

Keeney, R.L. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (2011). A value model to evaluate homeland security decisions. Risk Analysis, Vol. 31, 9, pp. 1470-1481.

Bakir, N.O. &  von Winterfeldt, D.  (2011). Is better nuclear weapons detection capability justified? Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, Vol. 8: Issue 1, Article 16, pp. 1-18.

Prager, F., Asay, G., Lee, B. & von Winterfeldt, D. (2010). Exploring reductions in London Underground passenger journeys following the July 2005 bombings.  Risk Analysis, Vol. 31

Keeney, G. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (2010) Identifying and structuring objectives of terrorists.  Risk Analysis, Vol. 30, 12, pp. 1803-1816.

Thakur, R., Lichem, W., and & von Winterfeldt, D.  (2010) Die UN brauchen einen Wissenschaftsberater (The UN needs a science advisor).  German Review on the United Nations, 58, 211-215.

Ezell, C.E., Bennett, S.P., von Winterfeldt, D., Sokolowski, J. & Collins, A.J.  (2010) Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk. Risk Analysis, 30, 4, pp. 575-589. (Best Paper Award for Issue-Linked Papers, Society for Risk Analysis).  

von Winterfeldt, D. & Fasolo, B. (2009). Structuring problems for decision analysis: Concepts, tools, and an example.  European Journal of Operational Research, 199, pp. 857-866.

Ezell, B. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (2009).  Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk, biosecurity and bioterrorism (commentary).  Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science, 7, 1, pp 108-110. 

Eppel, T. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (2008). Value of information analysis for nuclear waste storage tanks, Decision Analysis, 5, pp. 157-167.

von Winterfeldt, D. (2008). Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty: To help the dialogue between stakeholders with different interests and ideologies.  Epidemiology, 19, pp. S14-S15.

Carlson, K.A. and eight co-authors, including von Winterfeldt, D.  (2008). A theoretical framework for goal-based choice and for prescriptive analysis.  Marketing Letters, 19, pp. 241-254.

Bier, V. & von Winterfeldt D.  (2007). Meeting the challenges of terrorism risk analysis.  Risk Analysis, 27 (3), 503-504.

Rosoff, H. & von Winterfeldt, D. (2007).  A risk and economic analysis of dirty bomb attacks on the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, Risk Analysis, 27, pp. 533-546. (Best article in Decision Science in Risk Analysis in 2007). 

Keeney, R., See, K. & von Winterfeldt, D. (2006). Evaluating interdisciplinary academic programs: Applications to U.S. graduate decision programs, Operations Research, 17, pp.1-16.

von Winterfeldt, D. & O’Sullivan, T. (2006). Should we protect commercial airplanes against surface-to-air missile attacks by terrorists? Decision Analysis, 3, 63-75.

Smith, J.E. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (2004). Decision analysis in management science.  Management Science, 50, pp. 561-574.

von Winterfeldt, D., Eppel, T., Adams, J., Neutra, R., & DelPizzo, V. (2004). Managing potential health risks from electric powerlines: A decision analysis caught in controversy. Risk Analysis, 24, pp. 1487-1502.

Bruneau, M., Chang, S.E., Eguchi, R.T., Lee, G., O’Rourke, T.D., Reinhorn, A., Shinozuka, M., Tierney, K.,Wallace, W.A., & von Winterfeldt, D. (2003). A framework to quantitatively assess and enhance the seismic resilience of communities.  Earthquake Spectra, 34, pp. 27-65.

von Winterfeldt, D. et al. (2002).  Yucca Mountain: Should we delay?  Science, 296, pp. 2334-2334.

Dillon, R., John, R. & Winterfeldt, D.  (2002). Assessment of cost uncertainties for large technology projects: A methodology and an application.  Interfaces: An International Journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences. 32, pp. 52-66.

Keeney, R.L. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (2001). Appraising the precautionary principle – a decision analysis perspective.  Journal of Risk Research, 4, pp. 191-202.

von Winterfeldt, D. (and twenty co-authors). (2001). Benchmark exercise on expert judgment techniques in PSA Level 2.  Nuclear Engineering and Design, 209, pp.211-221.

von Winterfeldt, D. (2001).  Policy with regard to EMFs and the power grid.  Epidemiology, 12, S53-S53.

von Winterfeldt, D. & Zimmerman, R.  (2001).  Performance measures for managing infrastructure assets.  Health Monitoring and Civil Infrastructure Systems, 4337, pp. 28-36.

Dillon, R. & von Winterfeldt, D. (2000). An analysis of the implications of a magnetic field threshold limit value on utility practices.  American Industrial Hygiene Association Journal, Vol. 61, pp 76-81.

Adams, J., von Winterfeldt, D., and Nair, I. (1999).  Combination of the effects function approach and decision analysis in evaluating power frequency field options.  Electricity and Magnetism in Biology and Medicine, pp. 355-358.

von Winterfeldt, D. & Schweitzer, E.  (1998).  An assessment of tritium supply alternatives in support of the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile.  Interfaces: An International Journal of The Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, 28, pp. 92-112.  (Finalist, Edelman Award, INFORMS).

von Winterfeldt, D., Chung, N.-K., Luce, R.D. & Cho, Y. (1997).  Tests of consequence monotonicity in decision making under uncertainty.  Journal of Experimental Psychology:  Learning, Memory and Cognition, 23, pp. 1-23.

Hora, S. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1997).  Nuclear waste and future societies: A look into the deep future.  Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 56, pp. 155-170.

Gregory, R. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1996).  The effects of electromagnetic fields from transmission lines on public fears and property values.  Journal of Environmental Management, 48, pp. 1-14.

Cho, Y., Luce, R.D., & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1994). Tests of assumptions about the joint receipt of gambles in rank- and sign-dependent utility theory.  Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 20, No. 5, pp. 931-943.

Chung, N.K., von Winterfeldt, D., & Luce, R.D.  (1994).  An experimental test of event commutativity in decision making under uncertainty.  Psychological Science, 5, No. 6, pp. 394-400.

Luce, R.D. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1994).  What common ground exists for descriptive, prescriptive, and normative utility theories?  Management Science, 40, pp. 263-279.

Keeney, R.L. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1994).  Managing nuclear waste from power plants.  Risk Analysis, 14, pp. 107-130.

von Winterfeldt, D. & Trauger, T.  (1994). Managing electromagnetic fields from residential electrode grounding systems: A pre-decision analysis.  Bioelectromagnetics, 17, pp. 71-84. 

Otway, H.J. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1992).  Expert judgment in risk analysis and management:  Process, context, and pitfalls. Risk Analysis, 12, pp. 83-93.

Gregory, R., Keeney, R.L., & von Winterfeldt, D. (1992).  Adapting the environmental impact statement process to inform decision makers.  Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 18, pp. 231-245.

Borcherding, K., Eppel, T., & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1991).  Comparison of weighting judgments in multiattribute utility measurement.  Management Science, 37, pp. 1603-1619.

Keeney, R.L. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1991).  Eliciting probabilities from experts in complex technical problems.  IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 38, pp. 191-201.

Keeney, R.L. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1991).  A prescriptive risk framework for individual health and safety decisions.  Risk Analysis, 11, pp. 523-533.

Keeney, R.L., von Winterfeldt, D., & Eppel, T.  (1990).  Eliciting public values for complex policy decisions.  Management Science, 36, pp. 1011-1030.

Keeney, R.L. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1989).  On the use of expert judgment on complex technical problems.  IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 36, pp. 83-86.

von Winterfeldt, D.  (1989).  A re-examination of the normative-descriptive distinction in decision analysis.  Annals of Operations Research, 19, pp. 499-502.

von Winterfeldt, D.  (1989).  Whose opinion are we eliciting: the expert’s or the analyst’s?  Reliability Engineering and Systems Safety, 5, pp. 8-12.

von Winterfeldt, D.  (1988).  Expert systems and behavioral decision research.  Decision Support Systems, 4, pp. 461-471.

von Winterfeldt, D.  (1988).  User-model interaction in decision support systems for risk management.  Annals of Operations Research, 16, pp. 185-198. 

Borcherding, K. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1988).  The effect of varying value trees on multiattribute evaluations.  Acta Psychologica, 68, pp. 153-170.

Weber, M., Eisenfuehr, F., & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1988).  The effects of splitting attributes on weights in multiattribute utility measurement.  Management Science, 34, pp. 431-445.

von Winterfeldt, D., Eppel, T., & Ford, C.  (1988).  An experimental investigation of plural analysis: Estimating the market share of compact disc players in 1990.  Behavioral Science, 33, pp. 187-195.

Keeney, R.L. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1988).  Probabilities are useful to quantify expert opinions in complex technical problems.  Reliability Engineering and Systems Safety, 23, pp. 293-298.

Weber, M., Eisenfuehr, F., & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1987).  Bias in assessment of attribute weight.  In Toward interactive and intelligent decision support systems, pp. 309-318.

Edwards, W. &  von Winterfeldt, D.  (1987).  Public values in risk debates.  Risk Analysis, 7, pp. 141-158.

Stillwell, W.G., von Winterfeldt, D., & John, R.S.  (1987).  Comparing hierarchical and non-hierarchical weighting methods for eliciting multiattribute value models.  Management Science, 33, pp. 442-450.

Keeney, R.L., Renn, O., & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1987).  Structuring West Germany's energy objectives.  Energy Policy, August, pp. 352-362.

Keeney, R.L. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1986).  Why indirect health risks of regulations should be examined.  Interfaces, 16, pp. 13-27.

Keeney, R.L. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1986).  Improving risk communication.  Risk Analysis, 6, pp. 417-424.

Edwards, W. & von Winterfeldt, D. (1986).  Cognitive illusions and their implications for the law.  Southern California Law Review, 59, pp. 225-276.

Cohen, M.D., Huber, G., Keeney, R.L., Levis, A.H., Lopes, L.L., Sage, A.P., Sen, S., Whinston, A.B., Winkler, R.L., von Winterfeldt, D., & Zadeh, L.  (1985).  Research needs and the phenomena of decisionmaking and operations.  IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, SMC-15, pp. 764-775.

Barron, F.H., von Winterfeldt, D., & Fischer, G.W.  (1984).  Empirical and theoretical relationships between value and utility functions.  Acta Psychologica, 56, pp. 233-244.

Marks, G. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1984).  "Not in my back yard": Influence of motivational concerns on judgments about a risky technology.  Journal of Applied Psychology, 69,   pp. 408-415.

von Winterfeldt, D. & Edwards, W.  (1984).  Patterns of conflicts about risky technologies.  Risk Analysis, 4, pp. 55-68.

Ikeda, S. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1982).  Standards against noise pollution: The case of Shinkansen trains in Japan.  Journal of Environmental Management, 14, pp. 3 -16.

von Winterfeldt, D.  (1982).  Setting standards for offshore oil discharges: A regulatory decision analysis.  Operations Research, 14, pp. 247-256.

von Winterfeldt, D. & Edwards, W.  (1982).  Costs and payoffs in perceptual research.  Psychological Bulletin, 91, pp. 609-622.

Otway, H.J. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1982).  Beyond acceptable risk: On the social acceptability of technologies.  Policy Sciences, 14, pp. 247-256.

von Winterfeldt, D., John, R.S., & Borcherding, K.  (1981).  Cognitive components of risk ratings.  Risk Analysis, 1, pp. 277-287.

von Winterfeldt, D.  (1980).  Additivity and expected utility in risky multiattribute preferences.  Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 21, pp. 66-82.

von Winterfeldt, D.  (1980).  Structuring decision problems for decision analysis.  Acta Psychologica, 45, pp. 71-93.  (Polish translation in Praxiology, 1983.)

Seaver, D.A., von Winterfeldt, D., & Edwards, W.  (1978).  Eliciting subjective probability distributions on continuous variables.  Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 21, pp. 379-391.

Fischer, D.W. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1978).  Setting standards for chronic oil discharges in the North Sea.  Journal of Environmental Management, 7, pp. 177-199.

PUBLICATIONS:  Book Chapters and Conference Proceedings

Ferretti, V., Guney, S., Montibeller, G., and von Winterfeldt, D. (2015). Testing best practices to reduce the overconfidence bias in multi-criteria decision analysis.  Accepted for Presentation at the 49th Hawaiian International Conference on Systems Science, Kauai, HI.

Montibeller G, von Winterfeld D. (2014).Biases and debiasing in Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis. Proceedings of the 48th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences. Kauai, Hawaii: IEEE Computer Society, p. 1218–26.

Prado-Lopez V., Stewart T., Makowski M, & von Winterfeldt,  D. (2013).  Value Analysis of South Africa’s Energy Options.  In Bilec, M. & Choi, J. (Eds.) Proceedings of the International Symposium on Sustainable Systems and Technologies (ISSST), Vol.1, 18-21 May 2013, Oakland, CA, USA.

Ermoliev, Y. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (2012).  Systemic risk and security management.  In Ermoliev, Y., Makowski, M., & Marti, K. (Eds.).  Managing safety in heterogeneous systems.  New York: Springer, pp. 19-49.

Fasolo, B., Morton, A., & von Winterfeldt, D. (2011).  Behavioral issues in portfolio decision analysis.  In Morton, A., and Sahlo, A. (Eds.) Portfolio decision analysis, New York: Springer.

von Winterfeldt, D.  (2009). Lessons from Risk Analysis: Terrorism, Natural Disasters, and Technological Accidents.  In Kunreuther, H. & Unseem, M.  Learning from catastrophes.  Pittsburgh, PA: Pennsylvania State University Press.

Southwell, C. & von Winterfeldt, D.  A decision analysis of options to rebuild the New Orleans levee system. (2008). In Richardson, H., Gordon, P., and Moore, J. (eds.) Risk and economic impacts of hurricane Katrina. London: Elgar, pp. 34-52.

Edwards, W., Miles, R.F., & von Winterfeldt, D. (2007).  Introduction.  In W.Edwards, R.F. Miles, & D. von Winterfeldt (Eds.)  Advances in Decision Analysis: From Foundations to Applications.  New York: Cambridge University Press, pp.1-12. 

von Winterfeldt, D. (2007). Defining a decision analytic structure.  In W. Edwards, R.F. Miles, & D. von Winterfeldt (Eds.)  Advances in Decision Analysis: From Foundations to Applications.  New York: Cambridge University Press, pp.81-103.

Keeney, R. and von Winterfeldt, D. (2007). Practical value models.  In W. Edwards, R.F. Miles, & D. von Winterfeldt (Eds.)  Advances in Decision Analysis: From Foundations to Applications.  New York: Cambridge University Press, pp. 232-252.

von Winterfeldt, D. (2007). Choosing a tritium supply for nuclear weapons: A decision analysis caught in controversy.  In W. Edwards, R.F. Miles, & D. von Winterfeldt (Eds.)  Advances in Decision Analysis: From Foundations to Applications.  New York: Cambridge University Press, pp. 514-538.

von Winterfeldt, D. (2006).  “A risk and decision analysis framework to protect New Orleans against another Katrina.” In R. J. Daniels, D. F. Kettl, and H. Kunreuther (Eds.)  On risk and disaster.  Pittsburgh, PA: Pennsylvania State University Press. pp.27-39.

Alesch, D.J., Dargush, G.F., Gregoriu, M., Petak, W.J., von Winterfeldt, D.  (2003). Decision models: Approaches for achieving seismic resilience.  MCEER Research Progress and Accomplishments (M. Bruneau, ed.), 2001-2003, 97-114.

von Winterfeldt, D. (2001).  Decisions with multiple stakeholders and conflicting objectives.  In E. Weber, J. Baron, and G. Loomes (eds.)  Conflict and tradeoffs in decision making.  New York: Cambridge University Press, pp. 259-299.

von Winterfeldt, D. & Zimmerman, R.  (2001).  Performance measurement for managing infrastructure assets.  In S. Chase and E. Aktan (eds.)  Health Monitoring and Management of Civil Infrastructure Systems.  Bellingham: Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers, pp. 28-36.

McKone, T. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (2000).  Defining the decision framework and the value of exposure information in military deployments.  In T. E. McKone, B.M. Huey, E. Downing, and L. Duffy (eds).  Strategies to protect the health of the deployed U.S. forces.  Washington, D.C: National Academy Press.

Edwards, W. & von Winterfeldt, D. (2000). On cognitive illusions and their implications.  In T. Connolly, H.R. Arkes, and K.R. Hammond (eds.) Judgment and decision making.  New York: Cambridge University Press, pp. 592-620 (reprinted from Southern California Law Review). 

von Winterfeldt, D.  (1998).  On the relevance of behavioral decision research for the practice of decision analysis.  In J. Shanteau, B. Mellers, and D. Schum (eds.)  Decision research from Bayesian approaches to normative systems: Reflections on the contributions of Ward Edwards.  Norwell, MA: Kluwer, pp. 133-149.

von Winterfeldt, D. (1997).  Empirical tests of Luce’s rank- and sign-dependent utility theory.  In A.A.J. Marley (ed.)  Choice, decision, and measurement:  Essays in honor of Duncan Luce.  New Jersey:  Lawrence Erlenbaum, pp. 25-44.

Keeney, R.L., & von Winterfeldt, D. (1997).  An evaluation of our national policy to manage nuclear waste from power plants. In M. Karwan, J. Spronk, and J. Wallenius (eds.)  Essays in decision making: A volume in honor of Stanley Zionts.  New York:  Springer, pp. 371-390.

von Winterfeldt, D.  (1995).  An assessment of major nuclear technologies using decision and risk analysis.  In R. Hess (ed.)  Transactions of the 1995 Meeting of the American Nuclear Society, San Francisco, CA, October 29-November 2, 1995.  LaGrange Park, IL:  American Nuclear Society. 

von Winterfeldt, D.  (1992).  Expert knowledge and public values in risk management: The role of decision analysis.  In S. Krimsky and D. Golding. (eds.) Social theories of risk.  Westport, CN: Praeger, pp. 321-342.

Bonano, E.J., Hora, S.C, Keeney, R.L. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1990).  The use of expert judgments in performance assessment of HLW repositories.  Proceedings of the Symposium on Safety Assessment of Radioactive Waste Repositorie, pp.665-672.

Covello, V.T., Slovic, P., & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1988).  Disaster and crisis communications: Findings and implications for research and policy.  In H. Jungermann, R.E. Kasperson, & P.M. Wiedemann (Eds.)  Risk Communication.  Juelich, FRG:  Kernforschungsanlage Juelich, pp. 131-154.

Edwards, W., von Winterfeldt, D., & Moody, D.  (1988).  Simplicity in decision analysis: An example and a discussion.  In D.E. Bell, H. Raiffa, and A. Tversky (Eds.)  Decision analysis: Descriptive, normative, and prescriptive aspects.  New York: Cambridge University Press, pp. 443-464.

Keeney, R.L. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1988).  The analysis and its role for selecting nuclear repository sites.  In G.K. Rand (Ed.) Operational Research '87, Amsterdam: Elsevier  Science Publishers, pp. 686-701. (National contribution to the 11th International Conference on Operational Research in Buenos Aires, Argentina, 1987).

von Winterfeldt, D.  (1987).  Value tree analysis: An introduction and an application to offshore oil drilling.  In P. Kleindorfer and H. Kunreuther (Eds.), Insuring and managing hazardous risks: From Seveso to Bhopal and beyond.  New York: Springer, pp. 349-377.

Covello, V. T., von Winterfeldt, D., & Slovic, P.  (1987).  Communicating Scientific Information About Health and Environmental Risks: Problems and Opportunities from a Social and Behavioral Perspective.  In V. T. Covello, L. B. Lave, A. Moghissi and V. R. R. Uppuluri (Eds.) Uncertainty in Risk Assessment, Risk Management, and Decision Making, Advances in Risk Analysis, Volume 4, pp 221-239.

Covello, V. T., von Winterfeldt, D., & Slovic, P.  (1986).  Risk communication: A review of the literature.  Risk Abstracts, 4, pp. 171-182.  (Appeared also as: Risk communication.  (1988).  In C.C. Travis (Ed.) Carcinogen risk assessment.  New York: Plenum Press, pp. 193-207).

Edwards, W. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1986).  Cognitive illusions and their implications for the law. Southern California Law Review, 59, pp. 225-276. (Appeared also as: On cognitive illusions and their implications.  (1986).  In H.R. Arkes and K.R. Hammond (Eds.), Judgment and decision.) 

von Winterfeldt, D.  Decision making under uncertainty.  (1985).  In W. Findeisen (Ed.) Systems Analysis.  Warsaw, Poland:  Polish Academy of Sciences.  (In Polish).

Edwards, W. &  von Winterfeldt, D.  (1985).  Public disputes about risky technologies: Stakeholders and arenas.  In V. Covello, G. Mumpower, and G. Menkes (Eds.), Risk Evaluation and Management.  New York:  Plenum Press, pp. 69-92.  Also in V. Covello, G. Mumpower, P. Stallen, and R. Uppuluri (Eds.).  (1985).  Environmental Impact Assessment, Technology Assessment, and Risk Analysis.  Berlin: Springer, pp. 877-915.

von Winterfeldt, D.  (1984).  Editorial review of ‘Science, risk and public policy’, by W.D. Ruckelshaus.  Risk Abstracts, 1, pp. 41-42.

John, R.S., von Winterfeldt, D., & Edwards, W.  (1983).  The quality and user acceptance of multiattribute utility analysis performed by computer and analyst.  In P. Humphreys, O. Svenson, and A. Vari (Eds.), Analysing and aiding decision processes.  Budapest and Amsterdam:  Hungarian Academy of Sciences Press and North Holland, pp. 301-319.

von Winterfeldt, D.  Pitfalls of decision analysis.  (1983).  In P. Humphreys, O. Svenson, and A. Vari  (Eds.), Analysing and aiding decision processes.  Budapest and Amsterdam: Hungarian Academy of Sciences Press and North Holland, pp. 167-181.

Borcherding, K. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1983).  Was Laien unter Risiko verstehen (Lay people's concepts of risk).  In G. Luer (Ed.) Bericht ueber den 33. Kongress der Deutschen Gesellschaft fuer Psychologie.  Goettingen, West Germany: Hogrefe,          pp. 323-328.

Fischer, D., von Winterfeldt, D., & Ikeda, S.  (1981).  The Shinkansen and environmental issues.  In A. Straszak (Ed.), The Shinkansen Program: Transportation, Railway, Environmental, Regional, and National Developmental Issues.  Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, pp. 208-319.

Otway, H.J. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1980).  Risikoverhalten in der Industriegesellschaft.  In C.G. Hoyos, W. Kroeber-Riel, L. v. Rosenstiel and B. Struempel (Eds.), Grundbegriffe der Wirtschaftspsychologie.  Munich, West Germany:  Koesel, pp. 512-522.

von Winterfeldt, D.  Four theses on the application of risk assessment - A comment.  (1980).  In J. Conrad (Ed.), Society, technology, and risk assessment.  London:  Academic Press, pp. 35-38.

von Winterfeldt, D. & Rios, M.  (1980).  Conflicts about nuclear power safety: A decision theoretic approach.  In M.H. Fontana and D.R. Patterson (Eds.), Proceedings of the ANS/ENS Topical meeting on Reactor Safety.  Springfield, VA:  NTIS, pp. 696-709.

von Winterfeldt, D.  (1980).  Goal and conflict analysis of public policy plans.  In A. Straszak and R. Tuch (Eds.), The Shinkansen high speed rail network in Japan.  London:  Pergamon Press, pp. 275-278.

von Winterfeldt, D.  (1979).  A case study of TVA's environmental decision making: The Hartsville nuclear power plant project. In H. Knop (Ed.), The Tennessee Valley Authority: A field study.  Laxenburg, Austria:  International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, pp. 197-215.

Hoepfinger, E. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1979)  A dynamic model for setting railway noise standards.  In O. Moeschlin and D. Pallaschke (Eds.)  Game theory and related topics.  Amsterdam, Netherlands: North Holland, pp. 59-69.

von Winterfeldt, D.  (1978).  A decision aiding system for improving the environmental standard setting process.  In K. Cikocki and A. Straszak (Eds.), Systems analysis applications to complex programs.  Oxford, UK:  Pergamon Press, pp. 119-124.

Ikeda, S. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1978).  Regional policy making and environmental management:  A case study of the Kinki region in Japan.  In Proceedings of the International Congress on Cybernetics and Society (ICCS). Tokyo, Japan.  Oxford, UK:  Pergamon Press, pp. 557-562.

von Winterfeldt, D.  (1977).  A review of Keeney and Raiffa, Decisions with multiple objectives: Preferences and value tradeoffs.  Psychometrika, 42, pp. 451-52.

von Winterfeldt, D.  (1977).  Analysis of regional strategy setting.  In H. Knop (Ed.), The Bratsk Ilimsk Territorial Production Complex.  IIASA-CP-77-3, Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, pp. 83-93.

Owsinski, J. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1976).  Modeling and decisionmaking in regional development.  In R. Levien (Ed.), IIASA conference '76.  Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, pp. 135-15.

von Winterfeldt, D. & Fischer, G.W.  (1975).  Multi-attribute utility theory:  Models and assessment procedures.  In D. Wendt and C. Vlek (Eds.), Utility, probability and human decision making.  Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Reidel, pp. 47-85.

von Winterfeldt, D.  (1975).  Multi-criteria decision making: Comments on Jacquet-Lagreze's paper.  In D. Wendt and C. Vlek (Eds.), Utility, probability and human decision making.  Dordrecht, The Netherlands:  Reidel, pp. 113-117.

von Winterfeldt, D.  (1974).  Entscheidungshilfesysteme (Decision aiding systems).  In W. Tack (Ed.), Bericht ueber den 28. Kongress der Deutschen Gesellschaft fuer Psychologie.  Goettingen, West Germany:  Hogrefe, pp. 293-324.

PUBLICATIONS:  Selected Technical Reports and Working Papers

Garcia, R. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (2010). Attacker-defender decision trees for terrorism risk assessment: An Introduction and Application to Evaluating MANPADS Countermeasures.  Technical Report, Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE), University of Southern California, Los Angeles. 

von Winterfeldt, D. (2005). A risk and decision analysis framework for protecting New Orleans against another Katrina.  Technical Report, Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events, Los Angeles, CA.

von Winterfeldt, D. (2005).  A risk analysis of grounding practices for utility linemen.  Technical Report, Decision Insights, Inc. Los Angeles, CA

von Winterfeldt, D.  (2003) Using decision analysis and public participation to improve infrastructure decisions.  Institute for Civil Infrastructure Systems, New York University, New York

Flanagan, D.V., Jr. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (2002).  The economics of Yucca Mountain.  Technical Report. School of Policy, Planning, and Development, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA.

Benthien, M.  & von Winterfeldt, D.  (2001).  Using decision analysis to improve seismic rehabilitation decisions.  Working Paper WP-01-01, Institute for Civic Enterprise, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA.

von Winterfeldt, D., Roselund, N., & Kituse, A.  (2000).  Framing earthquake retrofitting decisions.  PEER Report 2000/3, Pacific Earthquake Engineering Center, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA.

von Winterfeldt, D.  (2000).  Power grid and land use policy analysis.  Final Report.  California Department of Health Services, Oakland, CA.

von Winterfeldt, D.  (2000).  Power grid and land use policy analysis: A guide for decision makers and stakeholders.  Technical Report, California Department of Health Services, Oakland, CA. 

von Winterfeldt, D.   (1999).  The value of electromagnetic fields research.  Technical Report, Irvine: Decision Insights, Inc.

Eppel, T., Seaver, D.A., & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1998).  Single Shell Tank Leak Determination: Technical Background.  Technical Report, Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Richland, WA: Battelle PNNL.

Keeney, R.L. and von Winterfeldt, D.  (1997).  Value tradeoffs for the Hanford Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Program.  Report No. PNNL-11724, UC-630.  Richland, WA:  Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.

Eppel, T. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1997).  Eliciting expert judgments to predict the outcomes of the FARO L-21 experiment: The NUREG 1150 methodology.  Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, Institute for Systems, Informatics and Safety, Ispra, Italy.

Brothers, A., Brewster, M., Harper, B., John, R., & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1996).  Risk-based characterization strategy for flammable gas safety.  Technical Report, battelle Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA.

von Winterfeldt, D. and Keeney, R.L.  (1996).  Managing magnetic fields:  Insights from decision analysis.  EPRI Report No. TR-107187.  Palo Alto: Electric Power Research Institute. 

Keeney, R.L. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1996). Value-based performance measures for Hanford Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program.  Technical Report No. PNNL-10946.  Richland, WA:  Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory.

Fassbender, L.L. and 12 authors, including von Winterfeldt, D. (1996).  Application of Value of Information to Tank Waste Characterization: A new paradigm for defining tank waste characterization requirements.  Technical Report PNNL-11395.  Richland: Battelle PNNL.

Creighton, J., von Winterfeldt, D., Armacost, L.L., & Robershotte, M. (1995).  Methods for analyzing and communicating technical and value information in the tank waste remediation system program.  Technical Report, Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Richland, WA. 

von Winterfeldt, D.  (1994).  Preventing human intrusion into a high-level nuclear waste repository.  Report to the National Research Council, Committee on the Technical Bases for Yucca Mountain Standards.  Institute of Safety and Systems Management, Los Angeles: University of Southern California.

Armacost, L.L., von Winterfeldt, D., Creighton, J., & Robershotte, M.  (1994).  Public values related to decisions in the Tank Waste Remediation Program.  Technical Report No. PNNL-10107.  Richland, WA:  Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory.

Keeney, R.L. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1993).  An analysis of strategies to manage nuclear waste from power plants.  Technical report DA-93-1, ISSM, University of Southern California.

Gregory, R., von Winterfeldt, D., Fassbender, L., & John, R. (1993).  Establishing mixed waste problem priorities for nuclear waste clean up.  Technical Report, Decision Insights, Inc., Irvine, CA. 

von Winterfeldt, D., John, R.S., Gregory, R., & Fassbender, L.  (1993).  Assessing technology needs for nuclear waste clean up.  Technical Report, Battelle PNL, Richland, WA.

Otway, H.J., Puckett, J.M., & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1992).  The prioritization of environment, safety, and health activities. Technical Report, Los Alamos National Laboratory,  Los Alamos, NM. 

Hora, S.C., von Winterfeldt, D., Trauth, K., & Anderson, D.R.  (1991).  Expert judgment on inadvertent human intrusion into the waste isolation pilot plant.  (Sandia Report No. SAND90-3063), Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM.

Bonano, E.J., Hora, S.C., Keeney, R.L., & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1990).  Elicitation and use of expert judgment in performance assessment for high-level radioactive waste repositories.  NUREG/CR-5411, SAND89-1821, Sandia National Laboratories.

Covello, V.T., von Winterfeldt, D., & Slovic, P. (1988).  Risk communication: A review of the literature.   Final Report to the National Science Foundation, Institute of Safety and Systems Management, University of Southern California.

Keeney, R.L. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1987).  Operational procedures to evaluate decisions with multiple objectives.  EPRI Research report No. RP-2141-10, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA.

von Winterfeldt, D. & John, R.S.  (1986).  Value tree analysis of alternative ordinances for "earthquakeproofing" masonry buildings in Los Angeles.  Working paper, Center for Public Administration and Policy Science, University of Wisconsin-Green Bay.

John, R.S., Keeney, R.L., Petak, W., &  von Winterfeldt, D.  (1984).  Evaluation of risk assessment methodologies for prioritizing dam remedial dam safety projects.  Final Report submitted to the National Science Foundation.  Institute of Safety and Systems Management, Los Angeles:  University of Southern California.

von Winterfeldt, D., Griffin, G., & Edwards, W.  (1984). On the relevance of the utility-value distinction for decision analysis.  Technical Report No. 84-1), Social Science Research Institute, Los Angeles:  University of Southern California.

Brown, R.V., Lindley, D.V., Ulvila, J.W., & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1984).  Plural analysis: Developing multiple approaches to quantitative research (Phase I).  Technical Report No. 84-3, Falls Church, VA: Decision Science Consortium. (NTIS No. PB87-116331/A05)

von Winterfeldt, D.  (1979).  Functional relationships between risky and riskless multiattribute utility functions.  Technical Report No. 79-3.  Social Science Research Institute, Los Angeles:  University of Southern California.

Williams, J. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1979). Carbon-dioxide, climate, and society.  Conference Proceedings.  Natural Resources Forum, 3, 187-191.

Gabrielli, W.F. & von Winterfeldt, D.  (1978).  Are importance weights sensitive to the range of alternatives in multiattribute utility measurement?  Technical Report No. 001922-6-T.  Social Science Research Institute, Los Angeles:  University of Southern California.

von Winterfeldt, D.  (1978).  A decision theoretic model for standard setting and regulation.  IIASA-RM-78-7.  Laxenburg: Austria:  International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

von Winterfeldt, D.  An overview, integration, and evaluation of utility theory for decision analysis.  Technical Report No. 75-9.  Social Science Research Institute, Los Angeles: University of Southern California.

von Winterfeldt, D.  (1974).  Error in decision analysis:  How to create the possibility of large losses by using dominated strategies.  Technical Report No. 74-4.  Social Science Research Institute, Los Angeles:  University of Southern California.

von Winterfeldt, D. & Edwards, W. (1973).  Costs and payoffs in perceptual research.  Technical Report No. 011313-1-T.  Engineering Psychology Laboratory, University of Michigan.

von Winterfeldt, D. & Edwards, W.  (1973).  Flat maxima in linear optimization models.  Technical Report No. 011313-4-T.  Engineering Psychology Laboratory, University of Michigan.

von Winterfeldt, D. & Edwards, W.  (1973).  Evaluation of complex stimuli using multi-attribute utility procedures.  Technical Report No. 011313-2-T.  Engineering Psychology Laboratory, University of Michigan.

Contact:

Lori Beltran
Administrative Assistant
Tel. 213-740-3863
Email: lbeltran@usc.edu