Transitioned Projects

ARMOR-GUARDS (Game-theoretic Unpredictable and Randomly Deployed Security)

ARMOR for LAX (Assistant for Randomized Monitoring Over Routes) Originally developed for the Los Angeles Police at LAX, several government agencies are now using customized versions of ARMOR to thwart adversaries and maximize security resources. ARMOR randomizes security schedules and plans, making it difficult for adversaries to plan how to avoid security forces when plotting illegal activities.

ARMOR-GUARDS (Game-theoretic Unpredictable and Randomly Deployed Security)

ARMOR-GUARDS(Game-theoretic Unpredictable and Randomly Deployed Security) assists in resource allocation tasks for airport protection at over 400 United States airports.

ARMOR-PROTECT (Port Resilience Operation Tactical Enforcement to Combat Terrorism)

ARMOR PROTECT (Port Resilience Operation Tactical Enforcement to Combat Terrorism) assists the USCG in allocating its patrolling resources, using an attacker-defender Stackelberg game framework, with USCG as the defender against terrorist adversaries that conduct surveillance before potentially launching an attack.

ARMOR-TRUSTS (Tactical Randomization for Urban Security In Transit Systems)

ARMOR-TRUSTS (Tactical Randomization for Urban Security In Transit Systems) has been designed to produce effective patrol schedules to deter fare evasion within the Los Angeles Metro system.


ARMOR-FISH is in use by the United States Coast Guard to help prevent illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing.



DPS DEPLOY (Department of Public Safety Deploy)

DPS DEPLOY (Department of Public Safety Deploy) is a real time decision support tool for improving security of the University of Southern California campus and the adjacent community. The system takes as input historical DPS crime data and generates a set of customized risk heat maps.


PORTSEC helps Los Angeles and Long Beach port security officers and analysts perform risk assessments and resource allocation analyses in order to optimally balance security activities and countermeasures, business continuity and daily port activities. The PortSec software analyzes facts and figures about a port’s layout and operations, anticipated attack vectors and methods, and cost of specific countermeasures. PortSec takes into account vulnerabilities, threats and potential resource allocations, and assesses them against consequences and costs.


CGE MODELS CGE MODELS The US Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and regional models for the New York Metro Region and Los Angeles County have been developed in collaboration with the US Customs and Border Protection, Transportation Security Administration, FEMA, DHS S&T, and Los Angeles Economic Development Corporation. CGE is a model of behavioral responses of all businesses and households in the economy to price changes, fiscal policy and regulation, as well as severe external shocks, within the workings of markets, constrained by the limits of labor, capital, and natural resources. It is essentially a model of integrated supply chains. These models have been used in several important CREATE studies, such as analyzing the tradeoffs between security and urban economic activity, the national and regional economic impacts of the September 11 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center, macroeconomic impacts of: reduced wait times at US airports, a major earthquake affecting the LA County water system, a terrorist attack on the LA electricity system, an attack on an LA industrial site using chlorine gas, a dirty bomb attack on the LA Financial District, a national ban on chlorine rail shipments, and terrorist attacks on a US airport and a commercial jetliner.

DET The Dirichlet Expert Elicitation and Aggregation Tool (DET)

DET The Dirichlet Expert Elicitation and Aggregation Tool (DET) developed by CREATE and used by the DHS Office of Risk Management and Analysis (RMA) and the Battelle National Biodefense Institute (BNBI), is a Visual Basic program embedded in Excel to collect expert judgements and estimates and combine them to produce a Dirichlet distribution over probabilities of attack modes that can used in subsequent risk analysis.

MANPADS (Man-Portable Air Defence System countermeasures.)

MANPADS (Man-Portable Air Defence System countermeasures.) CREATE developed a model to evaluate the installation of electronic devices on commercial aircraft to defend against surface-to-air missile attacks by terrorists. The model took into account alternative modes of attack, probabilities of success, and consequences to the economy.


EQ RAPID ESTIMATION The CREATE Reduced Form Economic Consequence Estimating Tool (RFT) allows for the rapid calculation of property damage and business interruption associated with earthquake events in California. The tool helps emergency management officials to quickly gauge their need for mobilization of their own resources and requests for potential transfer of resources between jurisdictions in the aftermath of a disaster.