Biases and Debiasing in Multi-criteria Decision Analysis

Publication Type: 
Authors: 
Detlof von Winterfeldt
Gilberto Montibeller
Description/Abstract: 
Abstract Developing models and estimating parameters for multi-criteria decision analysis requires judgments by experts and decision makers. These judgments are subject to biases, which can reduce the quality of the analysis. Some of these biases are due to faulty cognitive processes; some are due to motivations for preferred analysis outcomes. We describe these biases, how they affect multi-criteria decision analysis and discuss some debiasing techniques.