Risk Preferences and Decision-Support for PreCheck

Principal Investigator: 
Other Researchers: 
John Mueller
Performance Period: 
July 2015 to June 2016
Commercialization Status: 
N/A
Project Keywords: 
risk
economic assessment
cost-benefit
aviation security
Abstract: 
The project would evaluate the cost-effectiveness of TSA’s PreCheck program which seeks to lower screening costs and enhance passenger satisfaction by allowing for more careful evaluation of higher-risk passengers while reducing the evaluation of lower-risk passengers. The project will model the checkpoint efficiencies for both the PreCheck and the regular screening lanes. A system reliability model allows the rate of deterrence and disruption to be inferred for 9/11 type and IED terrorist threats to aircraft. It will also include considerations of risk aversion, a policy preference for many public policy decision makers; these will be incorporated into the analysis through utility theory. Monte-Carlo simulation analysis of terrorist deterrence and detection, risk reduction and losses allow for the effectiveness and confidence intervals of policy preferences to be calculated.