Expansion of the National Interstate Economic Model (NIEMO)

Principal Investigator: 
Performance Period: 
October 2007 to September 2008
Commercialization Status: 
N/A
Abstract: 
We have continued our current program of research, which involves applying spatially disaggregate economic models to estimate the losses following various hypothetical terrorist attacks.  Towards this end, we have developed and tested the National Interstate Economic Model (NIEMO), the only operational multi-regional input-output model of the 50 states and the District of Columbia (DC). We are elaborating NIEMO to assigns trade flows to the infrastructure that supports them.  This extended model is called “TransNIEMO.”  The application of TransNIEMO involves two steps:
  • Estimation of increased costs due to a terrorist event impacting key links (notably bridges and tunnels) the constructed highway network system, and
  • State-by-state economic impact analysis of resulting reductions in household expenditures via applications and extensions of NIEMO.
The group has invested considerable attention in identifying meaningful, computationally tractable means of representing the details of the national economy in a way that articulates with the national highway network. Our group has also been enlisted by DHS to assist in estimating the economic impacts in the New York area of the 9/11 attacks.  We have implemented a variety of incrementally more sophisticated econometric approaches to study the available historic economic record.