E-CAT

                     

The CREATE Economic Consequences Analysis Tool (E-CAT) is intended for policymakers and analysts who need quick estimates of the economic impact of threats listed in the Homeland Security National Risk Characterization (HSNRC) Register.  It provides estimates of the impact of terrorist attacks, natural disasters, and technological accidents on US gross domestic product and employment.  It is a decision-support software tool programmed in Excel Visual Basic in order to facilitate its use. Download a flyer by clicking here.

E-CAT is the culmination of 10 years of research at CREATE in advancing state-of-the-art of Economic Consequence Analysis (ECA) by incorporating the effects of resilience and behavioral responses from a broad range of threats.  The core of this research has been integrating broader features of consequences into the state-of-the-art tool of macroeconomic simulation and policy analysis -- computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling.  E-CAT involves a 7-step process beginning with the enumeration of a broad range of potential impacts for each threat, quantification of direct impact drivers, linkage of these drivers to variables in a national CGE model, running the CGE model hundreds of times varying key parameters particular to each threat, generating regression estimates from the simulation results, incorporating uncertainty, and transporting the reduced-form regression results to a user-friendly spreadsheet program.

Research leading up to the development of E-CAT has been sponsored by numerous DHS agencies, including several S&T divisions, Federal Emergency Management Agency, National Biosurveillence Integration Center, Domestic Nuclear Detection Office, Coast Guard, and Customs and Border Protection. Other sponsors have included NSF, World Bank, US Geological Survey, AIR Worldwide, and Los Angeles Economic Development Corporation.

E-CAT can help policy-makers evaluate the magnitude of various threats in order to make decisions on how to allocate budgets across interdiction, mitigation and resilience options.  It can help them distinguish the relative importance of various types of impacts for each threat and to target the most prominent ones.  E-CAT can also be used to provide rapid estimates of recent events that require immediate disaster assistance. 

The link below provides a version of the Economic Consequence Analysis Tool (E- CAT) software.  To operate software, you are referred to the User Guide available in Appendix B of the following book:

 

 

Rose, A., F. Prager, Z. Chen and S. Chatterjee. 2017. Economic Consequence Analysis Tool (E-CAT).  Singapore:  Springer Publishers.

 

 

The software is currently operative for the following six of the nine modules listed on the User Interface page:

  • Human Pandemic
  • Nuclear Attack
  • Animal Disease
  • Earthquake
  • Flood
  • Aviation System Disruption
  • Maritime Cyber Attack

The modules for Tornado, Oil Spill, and Maritime Cyber Attack are undergoing revisions and will be available in the near future. Additional modules are under consideration.   Any questions regarding the software should be addressed to CREATE Research Fellow Adam Rose at: adam.rose@usc.edu

To download the software click here