Principal Investigator: Adam Rose
Other Investigators: Terrie Walmsley (lead author), Richard John, Dan Wei, Jakub Hlavka, Juan Machado, Katie Byrd, Andrew Kinoshita, Bari Noor
Sponsor: Center for Accelerating Operational Efficiency (CAOE), Arizona State University
Abstract: We estimate the GDP impacts of COVID-19 in the U.S. using a disaster economic consequence analysis framework. This facilitates identification of the relative influence of several causal factors, including mandatory business closures, disease spread trajectories, behavioral responses, resilience, pent-up demand, and government stimulus packages. The analysis is undertaken with a dynamic computable general equilibrium model grounded in primary data on avoidance behavior and healthcare parameters. The decomposition of the influence of various causal factors will help policymakers make adjustments to offset the negative influences and reinforce the positive ones during the remainder of this pandemic and in future ones.