Probabilistic risk analysis and bioterrorism risk

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Detlof von Winterfeldt
Barry Charles Ezell
FOR MORE THAN 30 YEARS, probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been a major tool for assessing risks and informing risk management decisions by government and businesses in areas as diverse as industrial safety, environmental protection, and medical decision making (see, eg, refs. 1-5). The more recent application of PRA to terrorism risks is new, however, and not uncontroversial, as evidenced by the commentary by Parnell and colleagues in the December 2008 issue of Biosecurity and Bioterrorism. 6 The National Research Council ...