Intelligence and Risk Analysis

Publication Type: 
Detlof von Winterfeldt
Henry Willis
Genevieve Lester
The purpose of this project was to foster a closer collaboration between the risk analysts and intelligence analysts. In the past work of CREATE and at DHS, intelligence analysts were primarily used as subject matter experts (SMEs) to provide probability estimates related to the terrorists' choice of modes of attack, targets, and the likelihood of success at various stages of an attack. While these efforts had some success, members of the intelligence community felt that there could be better uses for their participation in risk ...