October 1, 2005
The routine application of reliability and risk analysis by itself is not adequate in the security domain. Protecting against intentional attacks is fundamentally different from protecting against accidents or acts of nature. In particular, an intelligent and adaptable adversary may adopt a different offensive strategy to circumvent or disable protective security measures. Game theory provides a way of taking this into account. Thus, security and counter-terrorism can benefit from a combination of reliability analysis and game theory. This paper discusses the use of risk and reliability analysis and game theory for defending complex systems against attacks by knowledgeable and adaptable adversaries. The results of such work yield insights into the nature of optimal defensive investments in networked systems to obtain the best trade-off between the cost of the investments and the security of the resulting systems.
Bier, Vicki M., "Game-Theoretic and Reliability Methods in Counterterrorism and Security" (2005). Published Articles & Papers. Paper 136. http://research.create.usc.edu/published_papers/136