Deterring Adaptive Adversaries: Multi-attribute Utility (MAU) Analysis, Decision Trees and Value of Misinformation for Informing Cyber Security

Principal Investigator: Richard John

Other Researchers: Heather Rosoff

We propose to expand upon John and Rosoff’s current adaptive adversary research by (1) developing objectives hierarchies for attacker decisions about cyber/space/ or other types of terrorist attacks, (2) developing MAU models that allow for an assessment of adversary groups’ value preferences for the selected attack methods and the impacts of different deterrence strategies on their preferences, (3) using attacker-defender decision trees and value of misinformation to conduct a more thorough analysis of deterrence strategies using the MAU models developed.