September 2017 to August 2018
From the very beginning of terrorism risk analysis (TRA) USC/CREATE has assisted the DHS, first by evaluating and selecting an overall approach, then developing methods for eliciting probabilities from intelligence analysts and other experts, then applying extensions of traditional TRAs in the form of defender-attacker decision tree analysis; and most recently providing the Government with a state-of the art (computable general equilibrium (CGE)) economic model that is integrated and can assess the economic impact of terrorism scenarios. This project will adapt the defender-attacker decision tree model to the TRAs. USC/CREATE will also examine how one can “buy down” risk by comparing defensive resource allocations to two different TRAs. Finally, USC/CREATE will develop the overall approach for resource allocations across all TRAs in the context of an Integrated TRA (ITRA). USC/CREATE will continue to evolve the economic model and ensure that the output is integrated.