October 2009 to September 2010
System Dynamics modeling
This project evolved out of a workshop hosted by CREATE in June 2006. Leading risk perception and communication researchers were invited to share their insights about where the field was and should be heading. They were invited to submit proposal ideas, which were then assembled into a white paper. Detlof von Winterfeldt and Bill Burns drafted a proposal that was funded in April 2009. Many participants, excited to move forward initiated their research in summer 2006 with no budget and effectively donating their time. This project would eventually involve the direct collaboration of investigators from three DHS University Centers (CREATE, START, NCFPD), Pacific Northwest National Lab (PNNL) and six university or research institutes (USC, ASU, UKY, UCI, RTI and Decision Research). Three subsequent conferences were held that collectively involved over 80 participants from leading universities, governmental agencies, research institutes and policy consulting firms. These conferences along with the work of the project’s principle investigators have produced over 30 papers and 55 presentations. A special issue in Risk Analysis currently has 12 of these papers under review. Five nationwide surveys were conducted. Two of these longitudinal surveys tracked public response to real time crises.