Publications (Recent)

       

Books

Okuyama, Y. and A. Rose (eds.), Modeling Spatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters: Heidelberg, Springer, forthcoming.

Abbas, A., M. Tambe, and D. von Winterfeldt (eds). 2017. Improving Homeland Security Decisions. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Rose, A. 2017. Defining and Measuring Economic Resilience from a Societal, Environmental and Security Perspective. Singapore: Springer.

Rose, A., F. Prager, Z. Chen, and S. Chatterjee. 2017. Economic Consequence Analysis of Disasters: The E-CAT Software Tool. Singapore: Springer.

Zhu, Q., T. Alpcan, M. Panaousis, M. Tambe, and W. Casey. 2016. Conference on Decision and Game Theory for Security (GameSec). Heidelberg: Springer.

Refereed Journal Articles

Baucum, M. and R. S. John. 2019. “The Psychophysics of Terror Attack Casualty Counts,” Risk Analysis.

Baucum, M., J. Cui, and R. S. John. 2019. “Temporal and Geospatial Gradients of Fear and Anger in the Social Media Response to Terrorism,” ACM Transactions on Social Computing.

Dormady, N., A. Roa-Henriquez, and A. Rose. 2019. “Economic Resilience of the Firm: A Production Theory Approach,” International Journal of Production Economics 208: 446-60.

Eyer, J. and A. Rose. 2019. “Mitigation and Resilience Tradeoffs for Electricity Outages,” Economics of Disasters and Climate Change 3(1): 61-77.

Kusumastuti, S., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. 2019. “Characterizing Conflicting User Values for Cyber Authentication Using a Virtual Public Values Forum,” Decision Analysis 16(3): 157-171.

Kusumastuti, S., H. Rosoff, J. Blythe, and R. S. John. 2019. “An Empirical Behavioral Study of Deterrence: An Analog Cyber-Attack Simulation Game,” Risk Analysis.

Nagamatsu, S., A. Rose and J. Eyer. 2019 “Return Migration and Decontamination after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accidents,” Risk Analysis, forthcoming.

Siebert, J. and D. von Winterfeldt. 2019. “Comparative Analysis of Terrorists’ Objectives Hierarchies,” Decision Analysis, forthcoming.

von Winterfeldt, D., S. Farrow, R.S. John, J. Eyer, A. Rose, and H. Rosoff. 2019. “Assessing the Benefits and Costs of Homeland Security Research: A Risk-Informed Methodology with Applications for the U.S. Coast Guard,” Risk Analysis, forthcoming.

Wei, D., Z. Chen, and A. Rose. 2019. “Estimating Economic Impacts of the US-South Korea Free Trade Agreement,” Economic Systems Research 31(3): 305.23.

Zhao, M., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. 2019. “Media Disaster Reporting Effects on Public Risk Perception and Response to Escalating Tornado Warnings: A Natural Experiment,” Risk Analysis 39(3): 535-552.

Baucum, M. and R. S. John. 2018. “Causal Evidence in Risk and Policy Perceptions: Applying the Covariation/Mechanism Framework,” Acta Psychologica 186: 90-103.

Baucum, M., H. Rosoff, R. S. John, W. Burns, and P. Slovic. 2018. “Modeling Public Responses to Soft-Target Transportation Terror,” Environment, Systems, and Decisions 38(2): 239-249.

Chen, Z. and A. Rose. 2018. “Economic Resilience to Transportation Failure:  A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis,” Transportation 45 (4): 1009-27.

Cui, J., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. 2018. “Public Response to Near-Miss Nuclear Accident Scenarios Varying in Causal Attributions and Outcome Uncertainty,” Risk Analysis 38(5): 947-961.

Dillon, R., W. Burns, and R. S. John. 2018. “Insights for Critical Alarm-Based Warning Systems from a Risk Analysis of Commercial Aviation Passenger Screening,” Decision Analysis 15(3): 154-173 [Runner-up for the 2018 Decision Analysis Special Recognition Award]

Eyer, J., R. Dinterman, N. Miller, and A. Rose. 2018. “The Effect of Disasters on Migration Destinations: Evidence from Hurricane Katrina,” Economics of Disasters and Climate Change 2(1): 91-106.

Farrow, S. and A. Rose. 2018. “Welfare Analysis:  Bridging the Partial and General Equilibrium Divide for Policy Analysis,” Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis 9(1): 67-83. [Recipient of the Outstanding Article of 2018 Award].

Prager, F. Z. Chen, and A. Rose. 2018. “Estimating and Comparing Economic Consequences of Multiple Threats:  A Reduced-Form Computable General Equilibrium Approach,” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 31: 45-57.

Rose, A. 2018. “Distributional Considerations for Transboundary Risk Governance of Environmental Threats,” International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 9(4): 445-53.

Rose, A., D. Wei, and D. Paul. 2018. “Economic Consequences of a Disruption of Oil Imports: The Role of Seaports in U.S. Energy Security,” Energy Policy 115: 584-615.

Xie, W., A. Rose, S. Li, J. He., N. Li, T. Ali, T., and W. Wei.  2018. “Dynamic Economic Resilience and Economic Recovery from Disasters:  A Quantitative Assessment,” Risk Analysis 38(6): 1306-18.

Cui, J., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. 2017. “A Polytomous Item Response Theory Model for Measuring Near-Miss Appraisal as a Psychological Trait,” Decision Analysis 14(2): 75-86.

Fang, F., T. Nguyen, R. Pickles, W.Y. Lam, G.R. Clements, B. An, A. Singh, B.C. Schwedock, M. Tambe, and A. Lemieux. 2017. “PAWS: A Deployed Game-Theoretic Application to Combat Poaching,” AI Magazine 38(1): 23-36.

Fang, F., T. H. Nguyen, A. Sinha, S. Gholami, A. Plumptre, L. Joppa, M. Tambe, M. Driciru, F. Wanyama, A. Rwetsiba, R. Critchlow, and C. M. Beale. 2017. “Predicting Poaching for Wildlife Protection,” IBM Journal of Research and Development 61(6): 3:1-3:12.

Nguyen, K., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. 2017. “Valuing Information Security from a Phishing Attack,” Journal of Cybersecurity 3(3): 159-171.

Nguyen, K., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. 2017. “Valuing Equal Protection in Aviation Security Screening,” Risk Analysis 37(12): 2405-2419.

Rose, A., M. Avetisyan, H. Rosoff, W. Burns, P. Slovic, and O. Chan. 2017. “The Role of Behavioral Responses in the Total Economic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Air Travel Targets,” Risk Analysis 37(7): 1403-18.

Ryutov, T., N. Sintov, M. Zhao, and R. S. John. 2017. “Predicting Information Security Policy Compliance Intention and Behavior for Six Employee-Based Risks,” Journal of Information Privacy and Security 13(4): 260-281.

Chen, Z., A. Rose, F. Prager, and S. Chatterjee. 2016. “Economic Consequences of Aviation System Disruptions:  A Reduced-Form Computable General Equilibrium Analysis,” Transportation Research A 95: 207–226.

Cui, J., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. 2016. “Cumulative Response to Sequences of Terror-Attacks Varying in Frequency and Trajectory,” Risk Analysis 36(12): 2272-2284.

Garcia, R. and D. von Winterfeldt. 2016. “Defender-Attacker Decision Tree Analysis to Counter Terrorism,” Risk Analysis 36(8): 1-14.

Kar, D., F. Fang, F.M. Delle Fave, N. Sintov, M. Tambe, and A. Lyet. 2016. “Comparing Human Behavior Models in Repeated Stackelberg Security Games: An Extended Study,” Artificial Intelligence Journal (AIJ) 240:65-103.

Nguyen, K., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. 2016. “The Effects of Attacker Identity and Individual User Characteristics on the Value of Information Privacy,” Computers in Human Behavior 55: 372-383.

Prager, F., D. Wei, and A. Rose. 2016. “Total Economic Consequences of an Influenza Outbreak in the United States,” Risk Analysis 37(1): 4-19.

Ridinger, G., R. S. John, M. McBride, and N. Scurich. 2016. “Attacker Deterrence and Perceived Risk in a Stackelberg Security Game,” Risk Analysis 36(8): 1666-1681.

Rose, A. and C. Huyck. 2016. “Improving Catastrophe Modeling for Business Interruption Insurance Needs,” Risk Analysis 36(10): 1896-1915.

Rose, A., I. Sue Wing, D. Wei, and A. Wein. 2016. “Economic Impacts of a California Tsunami,” Natural Hazards Review 17(2): 04016002.

Shieh, E., A. Jiang, A. Yadav, P. Varakantham, and M. Tambe. 2016. “An Extended Study on Addressing Defender Teamwork while Accounting for Uncertainty in Attacker Defender Games using Iterative Dec-MDPs,” Multi-Agent and Grid Systems 11(4):189-226.

Siebert, J., D. von Winterfeldt, and R. S. John. 2016. “Identifying and Structuring the Objectives of the ‘Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant’ (ISIL) and Its Followers,” Decision Analysis 13(1): 26-50.

Sue Wing, I., A. Rose, and A. Wein. 2016. “Economic Consequence Analysis of the ARkStorm Scenario,” Natural Hazards Review 17(4): A4015002.

Weiss, D., R. S. John, H. Rosoff, T. Baumert, M. Buesa, J. Gomez, A. Valeno, T. Shavit, and M. Rosenboim. 2016. “Worth the Risk? Terrorism Induced Fear of Flying,” Universitas Psychologica 15(3): 118-135.

Zhang, C., S. Gholami, D. Kar, A. Sinha, M. Jain, R. Goyal, and M. Tambe. 2016. “Keeping Pace with Criminals: An Extended Study of Designing Patrol Allocation Against Adaptive Opportunistic Criminals,” Games 7(3): 15.

Avetisyan, M., N. Heatwole, A. Rose, and B. Roberts. 2015. “Competitiveness and Macroeconomic Impacts of Reduced Wait Times at U.S. Land Freight Border Crossings,” Transportation Research A 78: 84–101.

Delle Fave, F.M., E. Shieh, M. Jain, A. Jiang, H. Rosoff, M. Tambe, and J. Sullivan. 2015. “Efficient Solutions for Joint Activity Based Security Games: Fast Algorithms, Results and a Field Experiment on a Transit System,” Journal of Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (JAAMAS) 29(5): 787-820.

Montibeller, G. and D. von Winterfeldt. 2015. “Cognitive and Motivational Biases in Decision and Risk Analysis,” Risk Analysis 35(7): 1230-1251.

Prager, F., A. Rose, D. Wei, B. Roberts, and C. Baschnagel. 2015. “Economy-wide Impacts of Reduced Wait Times at U.S. International Airports,” Research in Transportation Business and Management 16: 112-20.

Sinha. A., T. Nguyen, D. Kar, M. Brown, M. Tambe, and A. Jiang, 2015. “From Physical Security to Cyber Security,” Journal of Cybersecurity 1(1):19-35.

Book Chapters

Cui, J., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. In press. “Responses to Cyber Near-Misses: A Scale to Measure Individual Differences,” in S. Chatterjee, R. Brigantic, & A. Waterworth (eds.), Applied Risk Analysis for Guiding Homeland Security Policy and Decisions, New York: Wiley.

Rose, A. 2019. “Measuring Economic Resilience:  Recent Advances and Future Priorities,” in H. Kunreuther et al. (eds.), The Future of Risk Management, Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.

Rose, A. 2019. “Incorporating Cyber Resilience into Computable General Equilibrium Models,” in Y. Okuyama and A. Rose (eds.), Modeling Spatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters, Heidelberg, Springer, forthcoming.

Rose, A. and Z. Chen. 2019. “Resilience to a Cyber-Attack on the Detroit Automobile Industry: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach,” in P. Nijkamp, E. Glaeser and K. Kourtit (eds.), Urban Empires, Heidelberg: Springer, forthcoming. 

Rose, A. and N. Miller. 2019. “Measurement of Cyber Resilience from an Economic Perspective,” in S. Chatterjee, R. Brigantic and A. Waterworth (eds.), Applied Risk Analysis for Guiding Homeland Security Policy and Decision, New York: Wiley, forthcoming.

Rose, A. D. Wei and Z. Chen, “2019. Estimating U.S. Anti-Dumping/Countervailing (AD/CVD) Duty Enforcement Benefits, in Z. Chen et al. (eds.), Development Studies in Regional Science: Essays in Honor of Kingsley E Haynes, forthcoming.

Rose, A., N. Miller, J. Eyer, and J. Banks.  2019. “Economic Mitigation of and Resilience to Cyber Threats,” in A. Kott and I. Linkov (eds.), Cyber Resilience of Systems and Networks, Heidelberg:  Springer.

Dormady, N., A. Rose, H. Rosoff, and A. Roa-Henriquez. 2018. “Estimating the Cost-Effectiveness of Resilience to Disasters: Survey Instrument Design & Refinement of Primary Data,” in M. Ruth and S.G. Reisemann (eds.), Handbook on Resilience of Socio-Technical Systems, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

Rose, A. and N. Dormady. 2018. “Advances in Analyzing and Measuring Dynamic Economic Resilience,” in B. Trump M. Florin and I. Linkov (eds.), IRGC Resource Guide on Resilience (vol. 2): Domains of Resilience for Complex Interconnected Systems, Lausanne, CH: EPFL International Risk Governance Center.

Cui, J., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. 2017. “Deterrence of Cyber Attackers in a Three-Player Behavioral Game,” in S. Rass, B. An, C. Kiekintveld, F. Fang, & S. Schauer (eds.), Decision and Game Theory for Security: GameSec 2017 (pp. 718-736), New York: Springer.

Cui, J., T. Nguyen, J. Pita, and R. S. John. 2017. “Methods for Addressing the Unpredictable Real-World Element in Security,” in A. Abbas, M. Tambe, & D. von Winterfeldt (eds.), Improving Homeland Security Decisions (pp. 574-603), Cambridge University Press.

Dixon, P., M. Rimmer, G. Wittwer, A. Rose, and N. Heatwole. 2017. “Economic Consequences of Terrorism and Natural Disasters: The Computable General Equilibrium Approach,” in A. Abbas, M. Tambe and D. von Winterfeldt (eds.), Improving Homeland Security Decisions, New York: Cambridge University Press.

Fang, F., B. Ford, R. Yang, M. Tambe, and A. Lemieux. 2017. “PAWS: Game Theory based Protection Assistant for Wildlife Security,” in M. Gore (ed.), Conservation Criminology, New York: Wiley.

Kar, D., T.H. Nguyen, F. Fang, M. Brown, A. Sinha, M. Tambe, and A. X. Jiang. 2017. “Recent Trends and Applications in Security Games,” in T. Basar and G. Zaccour (eds.), Handbook of Dynamic Game Theory, Springer.

McCarthy, S., A. Sinha, and M. Tambe. 2017. “Game Theoretic Defense for Maritime Security,” in F. Roberts, J. DiRenzo, and N. Drumhiller (eds.), Challenges in Maritime Cyber Security, Washington, DC:  Westphalia Press.

Nguyen, K. and R. S. John. 2017. “Perceptions and Affective Responses to Alternative Risk-Based Airport Security,” in N. A. Stanton (ed.), Advances in Human Aspects of Transportation: AHFE 2017 (pp. 27-37), New York: Springer.

Nguyen, K., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. 2017. “Valuing Information Security from a Phishing Attack,” in D. Nicholson (ed.), Advances in Human Factors in Cyber Security: AHFE 2017 (pp. 146-157), New York: Springer.

Roberts, B., A. Rose, N. Heatwole, D. Wei, M. Avetisyan, F. Prager, C. Baschnagel, and I. Maya. 2017. “Economic Impacts of Changes in Wait Times at U.S. Ports of Entry,” in A. Abbas, M. Tambe and D. von Winterfeldt (eds.), Improving Homeland Security Decisions, New York: Cambridge University Press.

Rose, A. 2017. “Benefit-Cost Analysis of Economic Resilience Actions,” in S. Cutter (ed.) Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Natural Hazard Science, New York: Oxford; reprinted in Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Natural Hazard Governance, New York: Oxford, forthcoming.

Rose, A. 2017. “Construction of an Economic Resilience Index,” in D. Paton and D. Johnston (eds.) Disaster Resilience:  An Integrated Approach (2nd edition), Springfield, IL:  Charles C. Thomas Publishers.

Rose, A. 2017. “Economic Consequence Analysis of Maritime Cyber Threats,” in F. Roberts et al. (eds.), Maritime Cyber Security, Washington, DC:  Westphalia Press.

Rose, A. 2017. “Economic Resilience to Terrorism and Natural Disasters,” in A. Abbas, M. Tambe and D. von Winterfeldt (eds.), Improving Homeland Security Decisions, New York: Cambridge University Press.

Rose, A. 2017. “Resilience: State-of-the-Art and a Future Research Agenda,” in R. Jackson and P. Schaeffer (eds.), Regional Research Frontiers, Heidelberg: Springer.

Rosoff, H. and R. S. John. 2017. “Decision Analysis by Proxy for the Adaptive Adversary,” in A. Abbas, M. Tambe, and D. von Winterfeldt (eds.), Improving Homeland Security Decisions (pp. 709-729), New York: Cambridge University Press.

Abbas, A., M. Tambe, and D. von Winterfeldt. 2016. “Introduction to Improving Homeland Security Decisions,” in A. Abbas, M. Tambe, and D. von Winterfeldt (eds.), Improving Homeland Security Decisions, New York:Cambridge University Press.

An, B., A. Sinha, and M. Tambe. 2016. “Stackelberg Security Games (SSG) Basics and Application Overview,” in A. Abbas, M. Tambe, and D. von Winterfeldt (eds.), Improving Homeland Security Decisions, Cambridge University Press.

Nguyen, T., D. Kar, M. Brown, A. Sinha, M. Tambe, and A.X. Jiang. 2016. “Towards a Science of Security Games,” in B. Toni (ed.), Interdisciplinary Mathematical Research and Applications, Springer.

Rose, A. 2016. “Measuring Economic Resilience to Disasters: An Overview,” in M. Florin and I. Linkov (eds.), IRGC Resource Guide on Resilience Risk Governance, Lausanne: International Risk Governance Center.

Rose, A. 2016. “Private Sector Co-Benefits of Disaster Risk Management,” in E. Surminski and T. Tanner (eds.), Realising the Triple Resilience Dividend:  A New Business Case for Disaster Risk Management, Heidelberg: Springer.

Taylor, M., C. Kiekintveld, E. Shieh, F.M. DelleFave, and M. Tambe. 2016. “Evaluating Deployed Decision Support Systems for Security: Challenges, Analysis, and Approaches,” in A. Abbas, M. Tambe, and D. von Winterfeldt (eds.), Improving Homeland Security Decisions, New York: Cambridge University Press.

Giesecke, J., W. Burns, A. Rose, T. Barrett, and M. Griffith. 2015. “Regional Dynamics under Adverse Physical and Behavioral Shocks:  The Economic Consequences of a Chlorine Terrorist Attack in the Los Angeles Finance District,” in P. Nijkamp, A. Rose A, K. Kourtit (eds.), Regional Science Matters, Heidelberg: Springer.

Rose, A. 2015. “Economic Resilience to Disasters,” in B. Ayyub (ed.), Economics of Community Disaster Resilience, Gaithersburg, MD: National Institute of Standards and Technology.

Rose, A. 2015. “Macroeconomic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks:  Estimation for the Analysis of Policies and Rules," in C. Mansfield and V.K. Smith (eds.), Benefit Transfer for the Analysis of DHS Policies and Rules, Cheltenham, UK:  Edward Elgar.

Ryutov, T., M. Orosz, J. Blythe, and D. von Winterfeldt. 2015. “A Game Theoretic Framework for Modeling Adversarial Cyber Security Game Among Attackers, Defenders, and Users,” Security and Trust Management, London: Springer International, pp. 274-282.

Peer-Reviewed Proceedings Papers

Baucum, M. and R. S. John. 2019. “Gradients of Fear and Anger in Social Media Response to Soft-Target Terror Attacks,” in Proceedings of the 52nd Annual Hawaiian International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS-2019), Maui, HI, Jan. 8-11.

Baucum, M., R. S. John, M. Mayorga, P. Slovic, W. Burns, K. Portney, and J. Mumpower. 2018. “The Dynamics of Risk Perception for Soft Target Terrorism,” in Proceedings of the Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM-14) Bi-Annual Conference. Los Angeles, CA, Sept. 16-21.

Nguyen, K., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. 2017. “Assessing U.S. Travelers’ Trade-Offs for Aviation Safety Objectives: A Natural Experiment,” in Proceedings of the 50th Annual Hawaiian International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS-2017), Kona, HI, Jan. 4-7.

Pynadath, D., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. 2016. “Semi-Automated Construction of Decision-Theoretic Models of Human Behavior,” in Proceedings of the 15th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS-2016), Singapore, May 9-13.

Ferretti, V., S. Guney, G. Montibeller, and D. von Winterfeldt. 2015. “Testing Best Practices to Reduce the Overconfidence Bias in Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis,” accepted for presentation at the 49th Hawaiian International Conference on Systems Science, Kauai, HI.