Publications (Recent 2015-20)

Okuyama, Y. and A. Rose (eds.). 2019. Advances in  Spatial and Economic Modeling of Disaster Impacts. Cham, Switzerland: Springer Nature. Link

Abbas, A., M. Tambe, and D. von Winterfeldt (eds). 2017. Improving Homeland Security Decisions. New York: Cambridge University Press.  Link

Rose, A. 2017. Defining and Measuring Economic Resilience from a Societal, Environmental and Security Perspective. Singapore: Springer. Link

Rose, A., F. Prager, Z. Chen, and S. Chatterjee. 2017. Economic Consequence Analysis of Disasters: The E-CAT Software Tool. Singapore: Springer. Link

Zhu, Q., T. Alpcan, M. Panaousis, M. Tambe, and W. Casey. 2016. Conference on Decision and Game Theory for Security (GameSec). Heidelberg: Springer. Link

Baucum, M. and R. S. John. 2020. “The Psychophysics of Terror Attack Casualty Counts,” Risk Analysis 40(2): 399-407. Link

Baucum, M., J. Cui, and R. S. John. 2020. “Temporal and Geospatial Gradients of Fear and Anger in the Social Media Response to Terrorism,” ACM Transactions on Social Computing 2(4). Link

Becerik-Gerber, B., R. Zhu, G. M. Lucas, and E. G. Southers. 2020. “Building Preparedness in Response to Active Shooter Incidents: Results of Focus Group Interviews," International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 48. Link

Bruine de Bruin, W. and D. Bennett. 2020. “Relationships Between Initial COVID-19 Risk Perceptions and Protective Health Behaviors: A National Survey." American Journal of Preventive Medicine 59: 157-167. Link

Farrow, R.S. and D. von Winterfeldt. “Retrospective Estimation of Security Enhancing and Cost Saving Technologies." Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, forthcoming.

Koc, E., B. Cetiner, A. Rose, L. Soibelman, E. Taciroglu, and D. Wei. 2020. “CRAFT: Comprehensive Resilience Assessment Framework for Transportation Systems in Urban Areas." Advanced Engineering Informatics, forthcoming. 

Kusumastuti, S., H. Rosoff, J. Blythe, and R. S. John. 2020. “An Empirical Behavioral Study of Deterrence: An Analog Cyber-Attack Simulation Game,” Risk Analysis 40(3): 476-93. Link

Nagamatsu, S., A. Rose, and J. Eyer. 2020. “Return Migration and Decontamination after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accidents,” Risk Analysis 40(4): 800-17. Link

Roberts, B., F. Prager, C. Baschnagel, A. Rose, and B. Shears. “The Economic Benefits of Trade Facilitations: U.S. Customs and Border Protection's Centers of Excellence and Expertise Programme." The World Economy, forthcoming. Link

Rose, A., P. Ganderton, J. Eyer, D. Wei, R. Bostic, and D. von Winterfeldt. 2020. “The Role of a Deductible/Credit System for Post-Disaster Public Assistance in Meeting Alternative Policy Goals,” Journal of Environmental Planning and Management 63(12): 2163-93. Link

Siebert, J.U. and D. von Winterfeldt. 2020. “Comparative Analysis of Terrorists’ Objectives Hierarchies,” Decision Analysis 17(2): 97-185. Link

Sue Wing, I. and A. Rose. “Economic Consequence Analysis of Electric Power Infrastructure Disruptions: An Analytical General Equilibrium Approach,” Energy Economics, forthcoming. Link

Thrift, S. and D. von Winterfeldt. “Risk Informed Benefit-Cost Analysis for Homeland Security R&D: Methodology and an Application to Evaluating the Advanced Personal Protection System for Wildland Firefighters." Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, forthcoming.

von Winterfeldt, D., S. Farrow, R.S. John, J. Eyer, A. Rose, and H. Rosoff. 2020. “Assessing the Benefits and Costs of Homeland Security Research: A Risk-Informed Methodology with Applications for the U.S. Coast Guard,” Risk Analysis 40(3): 450-75. Link

Walmsley, T.L., A. Rose, and D. Wei. 2020. “Impacts on the U.S. Macroeconomy of Mandatory Business Closures in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic." Applied Economic Letters. Link

Wei, D., Z. Chen and A. Rose. “Evaluating the Role of Resilience in Reducing Economic Losses from Disasters: A Multi-Regional Analysis of a Seaport Disruption,” Papers in Regional Science, forthcoming. Link

Dormady, N., A. Roa-Henriquez, and A. Rose. 2019. “Economic Resilience of the Firm: A Production Theory Approach,” International Journal of Production Economics 208: 446-60. Link

Eyer, J. and A. Rose. 2019. “Mitigation and Resilience Tradeoffs for Electricity Outages,” Economics of Disasters and Climate Change 3(1): 61-77. Link

Kusumastuti, S., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. 2019. “Characterizing Conflicting User Values for Cyber Authentication Using a Virtual Public Values Forum,” Decision Analysis 16(3): 157-171. Link

Wei, D., Z. Chen, and A. Rose. 2019. “Estimating Economic Impacts of the US-South Korea Free Trade Agreement,” Economic Systems Research 31(3): 305.23.  Link

Zhao, M., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. 2019. “Media Disaster Reporting Effects on Public Risk Perception and Response to Escalating Tornado Warnings: A Natural Experiment,” Risk Analysis 39(3): 535-552. Link

Baucum, M. and R. S. John. 2018. “Causal Evidence in Risk and Policy Perceptions: Applying the Covariation/Mechanism Framework,” Acta Psychologica 186: 90-103. Link

Baucum, M., H. Rosoff, R. S. John, W. Burns, and P. Slovic. 2018. “Modeling Public Responses to Soft-Target Transportation Terror,” Environment, Systems, and Decisions 38(2): 239-249. Link

Chen, Z. and A. Rose. 2018. “Economic Resilience to Transportation Failure:  A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis,” Transportation 45 (4): 1009-27. Link

Cui, J., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. 2018. “Public Response to Near-Miss Nuclear Accident Scenarios Varying in Causal Attributions and Outcome Uncertainty,” Risk Analysis 38(5): 947-961. Link

Dillon, R., W. Burns, and R. S. John. 2018. “Insights for Critical Alarm-Based Warning Systems from a Risk Analysis of Commercial Aviation Passenger Screening,” Decision Analysis 15(3): 154-173 [Runner-up for the 2018 Decision Analysis Special Recognition Award]. Link

Eyer, J., R. Dinterman, N. Miller, and A. Rose. 2018. “The Effect of Disasters on Migration Destinations: Evidence from Hurricane Katrina,” Economics of Disasters and Climate Change 2(1): 91-106. Link

Farrow, S. and A. Rose. 2018. “Welfare Analysis:  Bridging the Partial and General Equilibrium Divide for Policy Analysis,” Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis 9(1): 67-83. [Recipient of the Outstanding Article of 2018 Award]. Link

Prager, F. Z. Chen, and A. Rose. 2018. “Estimating and Comparing Economic Consequences of Multiple Threats:  A Reduced-Form Computable General Equilibrium Approach,” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 31: 45-57. Link

Rose, A. 2018. “Distributional Considerations for Transboundary Risk Governance of Environmental Threats,” International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 9(4): 445-53.  Link

Rose, A., D. Wei, and D. Paul. 2018. “Economic Consequences of a Disruption of Oil Imports: The Role of Seaports in U.S. Energy Security,” Energy Policy 115: 584-615. Link

Xie, W., A. Rose, S. Li, J. He., N. Li, T. Ali, T., and W. Wei.  2018. “Dynamic Economic Resilience and Economic Recovery from Disasters:  A Quantitative Assessment,” Risk Analysis 38(6): 1306-18. Link

Cui, J., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. 2017. “A Polytomous Item Response Theory Model for Measuring Near-Miss Appraisal as a Psychological Trait,” Decision Analysis 14(2): 75-86. Link

Fang, F., T. Nguyen, R. Pickles, W.Y. Lam, G.R. Clements, B. An, A. Singh, B.C. Schwedock, M. Tambe, and A. Lemieux. 2017. “PAWS: A Deployed Game-Theoretic Application to Combat Poaching,” AI Magazine 38(1): 23-36. Link

Fang, F., T. H. Nguyen, A. Sinha, S. Gholami, A. Plumptre, L. Joppa, M. Tambe, M. Driciru, F. Wanyama, A. Rwetsiba, R. Critchlow, and C. M. Beale. 2017. “Predicting Poaching for Wildlife Protection,” IBM Journal of Research and Development 61(6): 3:1-3:12. Link

Nguyen, K., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. 2017. “Valuing Information Security from a Phishing Attack,” Journal of Cybersecurity 3(3): 159-171. Link

Nguyen, K., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. 2017. “Valuing Equal Protection in Aviation Security Screening,” Risk Analysis 37(12): 2405-2419. Link

Rose, A., M. Avetisyan, H. Rosoff, W. Burns, P. Slovic, and O. Chan. 2017. “The Role of Behavioral Responses in the Total Economic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Air Travel Targets,” Risk Analysis 37(7): 1403-18. Link

Ryutov, T., N. Sintov, M. Zhao, and R. S. John. 2017. “Predicting Information Security Policy Compliance Intention and Behavior for Six Employee-Based Risks,” Journal of Information Privacy and Security 13(4): 260-281. Link

Chen, Z., A. Rose, F. Prager, and S. Chatterjee. 2016. “Economic Consequences of Aviation System Disruptions:  A Reduced-Form Computable General Equilibrium Analysis,” Transportation Research A 95: 207–226. Link

Cui, J., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. 2016. “Cumulative Response to Sequences of Terror-Attacks Varying in Frequency and Trajectory,” Risk Analysis 36(12): 2272-2284. Link

Garcia, R. and D. von Winterfeldt. 2016. “Defender-Attacker Decision Tree Analysis to Counter Terrorism,” Risk Analysis 36(8): 1-14. Link

Kar, D., F. Fang, F.M. Delle Fave, N. Sintov, M. Tambe, and A. Lyet. 2016. “Comparing Human Behavior Models in Repeated Stackelberg Security Games: An Extended Study,” Artificial Intelligence Journal (AIJ) 240:65-103. Link

Nguyen, K., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. 2016. “The Effects of Attacker Identity and Individual User Characteristics on the Value of Information Privacy,” Computers in Human Behavior 55: 372-383. Link

Prager, F., D. Wei, and A. Rose. 2016. “Total Economic Consequences of an Influenza Outbreak in the United States,” Risk Analysis 37(1): 4-19. Link

Ridinger, G., R. S. John, M. McBride, and N. Scurich. 2016. “Attacker Deterrence and Perceived Risk in a Stackelberg Security Game,” Risk Analysis 36(8): 1666-1681. Link

Rose, A. and C. Huyck. 2016. “Improving Catastrophe Modeling for Business Interruption Insurance Needs,” Risk Analysis 36(10): 1896-1915. Link

Rose, A., I. Sue Wing, D. Wei, and A. Wein. 2016. “Economic Impacts of a California Tsunami,” Natural Hazards Review 17(2): 04016002. Link

Shieh, E., A. Jiang, A. Yadav, P. Varakantham, and M. Tambe. 2016. “An Extended Study on Addressing Defender Teamwork while Accounting for Uncertainty in Attacker Defender Games using Iterative Dec-MDPs,” Multi-Agent and Grid Systems 11(4):189-226. Link

Siebert, J., D. von Winterfeldt, and R. S. John. 2016. “Identifying and Structuring the Objectives of the ‘Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant’ (ISIL) and Its Followers,” Decision Analysis 13(1): 26-50. Link

Sue Wing, I., A. Rose, and A. Wein. 2016. “Economic Consequence Analysis of the ARkStorm Scenario,” Natural Hazards Review 17(4): A4015002. Link

Weiss, D., R. S. John, H. Rosoff, T. Baumert, M. Buesa, J. Gomez, A. Valeno, T. Shavit, and M. Rosenboim. 2016. “Worth the Risk? Terrorism Induced Fear of Flying,” Universitas Psychologica 15(3): 118-135. Link

Zhang, C., S. Gholami, D. Kar, A. Sinha, M. Jain, R. Goyal, and M. Tambe. 2016. “Keeping Pace with Criminals: An Extended Study of Designing Patrol Allocation Against Adaptive Opportunistic Criminals,” Games 7(3): 15.  Link

Avetisyan, M., N. Heatwole, A. Rose, and B. Roberts. 2015. “Competitiveness and Macroeconomic Impacts of Reduced Wait Times at U.S. Land Freight Border Crossings,” Transportation Research A 78: 84–101. Link

Cui, J., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. In press. “Responses to Cyber Near-Misses: A Scale to Measure Individual Differences,” in S. Chatterjee, R. Brigantic, & A. Waterworth (eds.), Applied Risk Analysis for Guiding Homeland Security Policy and Decisions, New York: Wiley. 

Rose, A. 2019. “Measuring Economic Resilience:  Recent Advances and Future Priorities,” in H. Kunreuther et al. (eds.), The Future of Risk Management, Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press. Link

Rose, A. 2019. “Incorporating Cyber Resilience into Computable General Equilibrium Models,” in Y. Okuyama and A. Rose (eds.), Modeling Spatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters, Heidelberg, Springer, forthcoming. Link

Rose, A. and Z. Chen. 2019. “Resilience to a Cyber-Attack on the Detroit Automobile Industry: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach,” in P. Nijkamp, E. Glaeser and K. Kourtit (eds.), Urban Empires, Heidelberg: Springer, forthcoming. Link

Rose, A. and N. Miller. 2019. “Measurement of Cyber Resilience from an Economic Perspective,” in S. Chatterjee, R. Brigantic and A. Waterworth (eds.), Applied Risk Analysis for Guiding Homeland Security Policy and Decision, New York: Wiley, forthcoming.   

Rose, A. D. Wei and Z. Chen, “2019. Estimating U.S. Anti-Dumping/Countervailing (AD/CVD) Duty Enforcement Benefits, in Z. Chen et al. (eds.), Development Studies in Regional Science: Essays in Honor of Kingsley E Haynes, forthcoming. Link

Rose, A., N. Miller, J. Eyer, and J. Banks.  2019. “Economic Mitigation of and Resilience to Cyber Threats,” in A. Kott and I. Linkov (eds.), Cyber Resilience of Systems and Networks, Heidelberg:  Springer. Link

Dormady, N., A. Rose, H. Rosoff, and A. Roa-Henriquez. 2018. “Estimating the Cost-Effectiveness of Resilience to Disasters: Survey Instrument Design & Refinement of Primary Data,” in M. Ruth and S.G. Reisemann (eds.), Handbook on Resilience of Socio-Technical Systems, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Link

Rose, A. and N. Dormady. 2018. “Advances in Analyzing and Measuring Dynamic Economic Resilience,” in B. Trump M. Florin and I. Linkov (eds.), IRGC Resource Guide on Resilience (vol. 2): Domains of Resilience for Complex Interconnected Systems, Lausanne, CH: EPFL International Risk Governance Center. Link

Cui, J., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. 2017. “Deterrence of Cyber Attackers in a Three-Player Behavioral Game,” in S. Rass, B. An, C. Kiekintveld, F. Fang, & S. Schauer (eds.), Decision and Game Theory for Security: GameSec 2017 (pp. 718-736), New York: Springer. Link

Cui, J., T. Nguyen, J. Pita, and R. S. John. 2017. “Methods for Addressing the Unpredictable Real-World Element in Security,” in A. Abbas, M. Tambe, & D. von Winterfeldt (eds.), Improving Homeland Security Decisions (pp. 574-603), Cambridge University Press. Link

Dixon, P., M. Rimmer, G. Wittwer, A. Rose, and N. Heatwole. 2017. “Economic Consequences of Terrorism and Natural Disasters: The Computable General Equilibrium Approach,” in A. Abbas, M. Tambe and D. von Winterfeldt (eds.), Improving Homeland Security Decisions, New York: Cambridge University Press. Link

Fang, F., B. Ford, R. Yang, M. Tambe, and A. Lemieux. 2017. “PAWS: Game Theory based Protection Assistant for Wildlife Security,” in M. Gore (ed.), Conservation Criminology, New York: Wiley. Link

Kar, D., T.H. Nguyen, F. Fang, M. Brown, A. Sinha, M. Tambe, and A. X. Jiang. 2017. “Recent Trends and Applications in Security Games,” in T. Basar and G. Zaccour (eds.), Handbook of Dynamic Game Theory, Springer. Link

McCarthy, S., A. Sinha, and M. Tambe. 2017. “Game Theoretic Defense for Maritime Security,” in F. Roberts, J. DiRenzo, and N. Drumhiller (eds.), Challenges in Maritime Cyber Security, Washington, DC:  Westphalia Press. 

Nguyen, K. and R. S. John. 2017. “Perceptions and Affective Responses to Alternative Risk-Based Airport Security,” in N. A. Stanton (ed.), Advances in Human Aspects of Transportation: AHFE 2017 (pp. 27-37), New York: Springer. Link 

Nguyen, K., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. 2017. “Valuing Information Security from a Phishing Attack,” in D. Nicholson (ed.), Advances in Human Factors in Cyber Security: AHFE 2017 (pp. 146-157), New York: Springer. Link

Roberts, B., A. Rose, N. Heatwole, D. Wei, M. Avetisyan, F. Prager, C. Baschnagel, and I. Maya. 2017. “Economic Impacts of Changes in Wait Times at U.S. Ports of Entry,” in A. Abbas, M. Tambe and D. von Winterfeldt (eds.), Improving Homeland Security Decisions, New York: Cambridge University Press. Link

Rose, A. 2017. “Benefit-Cost Analysis of Economic Resilience Actions,” in S. Cutter (ed.) Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Natural Hazard Science, New York: Oxford; reprinted in Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Natural Hazard Governance, New York: Oxford, forthcoming. Link

Rose, A. 2017. “Construction of an Economic Resilience Index,” in D. Paton and D. Johnston (eds.) Disaster Resilience:  An Integrated Approach (2nd edition), Springfield, IL:  Charles C. Thomas Publishers. Link

Rose, A. 2017. “Economic Consequence Analysis of Maritime Cyber Threats,” in F. Roberts et al. (eds.), Maritime Cyber Security, Washington, DC:  Westphalia Press. Link

Rose, A. 2017. “Economic Resilience to Terrorism and Natural Disasters,” in A. Abbas, M. Tambe and D. von Winterfeldt (eds.), Improving Homeland Security Decisions, New York: Cambridge University Press. Link

Rose, A. 2017. “Resilience: State-of-the-Art and a Future Research Agenda,” in R. Jackson and P. Schaeffer (eds.), Regional Research Frontiers, Heidelberg: Springer. Link

Rosoff, H. and R. S. John. 2017. “Decision Analysis by Proxy for the Adaptive Adversary,” in A. Abbas, M. Tambe, and D. von Winterfeldt (eds.), Improving Homeland Security Decisions (pp. 709-729), New York: Cambridge University Press. Link

Abbas, A., M. Tambe, and D. von Winterfeldt. 2016. “Introduction to Improving Homeland Security Decisions,” in A. Abbas, M. Tambe, and D. von Winterfeldt (eds.), Improving Homeland Security Decisions, New York:Cambridge University Press. Link

An, B., A. Sinha, and M. Tambe. 2016. “Stackelberg Security Games (SSG) Basics and Application Overview,” in A. Abbas, M. Tambe, and D. von Winterfeldt (eds.), Improving Homeland Security Decisions, Cambridge University Press. Link

Nguyen, T., D. Kar, M. Brown, A. Sinha, M. Tambe, and A.X. Jiang. 2016. “Towards a Science of Security Games,” in B. Toni (ed.), Interdisciplinary Mathematical Research and Applications, Springer. Link 

Rose, A. 2016. “Measuring Economic Resilience to Disasters: An Overview,” in M. Florin and I. Linkov (eds.), IRGC Resource Guide on Resilience Risk Governance, Lausanne: International Risk Governance Center. Link

Rose, A. 2016. “Private Sector Co-Benefits of Disaster Risk Management,” in E. Surminski and T. Tanner (eds.), Realising the Triple Resilience Dividend:  A New Business Case for Disaster Risk Management, Heidelberg: Springer. Link

Taylor, M., C. Kiekintveld, E. Shieh, F.M. DelleFave, and M. Tambe. 2016. “Evaluating Deployed Decision Support Systems for Security: Challenges, Analysis, and Approaches,” in A. Abbas, M. Tambe, and D. von Winterfeldt (eds.), Improving Homeland Security Decisions, New York: Cambridge University Press. Link 

Giesecke, J., W. Burns, A. Rose, T. Barrett, and M. Griffith. 2015. “Regional Dynamics under Adverse Physical and Behavioral Shocks:  The Economic Consequences of a Chlorine Terrorist Attack in the Los Angeles Finance District,” in P. Nijkamp, A. Rose A, K. Kourtit (eds.), Regional Science Matters, Heidelberg: Springer. Link 

Rose, A. 2015. “Economic Resilience to Disasters,” in B. Ayyub (ed.), Economics of Community Disaster Resilience, Gaithersburg, MD: National Institute of Standards and Technology. Link

Rose, A. 2015. “Macroeconomic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks:  Estimation for the Analysis of Policies and Rules," in C. Mansfield and V.K. Smith (eds.), Benefit Transfer for the Analysis of DHS Policies and Rules, Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar. Link

Ryutov, T., M. Orosz, J. Blythe, and D. von Winterfeldt. 2015. “A Game Theoretic Framework for Modeling Adversarial Cyber Security Game Among Attackers, Defenders, and Users,” Security and Trust Management, London: Springer International, pp. 274-282. Link

Baucum, M. and R. S. John. 2019. “Gradients of Fear and Anger in Social Media Response to Soft-Target Terror Attacks,” in Proceedings of the 52nd Annual Hawaiian International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS-2019), Maui, HI, Jan. 8-11. Link 

Baucum, M., R. S. John, M. Mayorga, P. Slovic, W. Burns, K. Portney, and J. Mumpower. 2018. “The Dynamics of Risk Perception for Soft Target Terrorism,” in Proceedings of the Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM-14) Bi-Annual Conference. Los Angeles, CA, Sept. 16-21. Link

Nguyen, K., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. 2017. “Assessing U.S. Travelers’ Trade-Offs for Aviation Safety Objectives: A Natural Experiment,” in Proceedings of the 50th Annual Hawaiian International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS-2017), Kona, HI, Jan. 4-7. Link

Pynadath, D., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. 2016. “Semi-Automated Construction of Decision-Theoretic Models of Human Behavior,” in Proceedings of the 15th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS-2016), Singapore, May 9-13. Link

Ferretti, V., S. Guney, G. Montibeller, and D. von Winterfeldt. 2015. “Testing Best Practices to Reduce the Overconfidence Bias in Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis,” accepted for presentation at the 49th Hawaiian International Conference on Systems Science, Kauai, HI. Link