Decision making under uncertainty is a feature that is present in all aspects of homeland security applications. The “Unity of Effort memo” introduced by Secretary Johnson calls for a sound decision making structure across all components of DHS.
The Decision Analysis research area of CREATE is concerned with the use of rigorous models to help make sound decisions in homeland security applications based on axioms of rational thought to help provide a “unity of effort” decision culture.
Topics in this area include:
- The appropriate representation of preferences and trade-offs using multiattribute value and utility models.
- The appropriate representation of risk attitudes.
- Modeling adversary beliefs and preferences
- The representation of belief using joint probability distributions, and the updating of belief using Bayes’ rule.
- Group decision making
- Framing decision situations
- Alternative generation
- The identification (and minimization) of the effects of cognitive biases.
- Implementing a decision culture within an enterprise.
The Decision Analysis area also include aspects of learning from data, and the steps involved in the transfer of data to knowledge and ultimately to decision making.
Research Area Leader: Ali Abbas
Dr. Ali Abbas