CREATE has been awarded funding for a 2-year project on “Improving Behavioral Analysis in Assessing the Economic Consequences of CBRN Attacks.” CBRN represents a set of weapons capable of mass destruction, including chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons. Funding for the research comes from the National Counterterrorism Innovation, Technology, and Education Center (NCITE) at the University of Nebraska, supported by the Department of Homeland Security Office of University Programs.
Several studies by CREATE researchers and others have found that extreme behavioral responses to actual or simulated terrorist attacks and other extreme events involving CBRN agents can exacerbate ordinary business interruption losses by two to three orders of magnitude. These losses not only occur at the attack site but also from geographic and economic ripple effects resulting from supply chain disruptions and population mobility (see references below). The new research will build on prior conceptual and empirical analyses to examine direct and indirect behavioral responses to CBRN threats. The research will involve collaborative research in economics and psychology to advance conceptual foundations, develop spatial and temporal classifications, formulate key hypotheses, collect data through survey research, conduct statistical and econometric analyses, and transition the results into forms most useful to DHS and other stakeholders.
The combined analyses will fill important knowledge gaps identified by the project’s DHS and other government agency stakeholders and government and academic advisory board members. These include improved specification of key parameters, such as compliance with evacuation orders, trust in government messaging on decontamination, and behaviors that are susceptible to modification through incentives. The focus will be on distinguishing avoidance from aversion behavior, assessing changes in risk attitudes, and analyzing changes in risk perceptions. The results will be most immediately useful to operational units, such as the FEMA National Preparedness Directorate, Technological Hazards Division, and the Radiological Emergency Preparedness Program (REPP) for preparedness planning and post-incident relocation, re-entry, return, and re-occupancy, while also informing future improvements to Terrorism Risk Assessment decision-support tools, such as PANTHR and TIGER. They have the potential to improve resource allocation decisions across various stages of preparedness and response to CBRN threats.
The core research team will be CREATE Senior Research Fellow and Director Emeritus, Adam Rose (PI), Senior Research Fellow Richard John (Co-PI), and former DHS Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) Chief Economist Tony Cheesebrough (consultant). It will be supported by graduate assistants in the USC Price School of Public Policy, and the Economics and Psychology Departments. Stakeholder group members include representatives from DHS agencies FEMA, S&T, and CISA, as well as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Sandia National Laboratory. Advisory Board members will include prominent researchers from USC, Wisconsin, George Mason, Pacific National Northwest Labs, and the Los Angeles Economic Development Corporation.
References
Byrd, K., K. Kapadia, and R. S. John. 2025. “Perceived Effectiveness and Intrusiveness of School Security Countermeasures among Parents, Students, and Staff,” Environment, Systems, and Decisions 45(1): 11. doi.org/10.1007/s10669-025-10004-7
Byrd, K., K. Kapadia, A. Rose, and R. S. John. 2024. “Securing Public Spaces: Public Willingness to Sacrifice Convenience and Privacy for Security at Three U.S. Public Venues,” Journal of Risk Research 27(4): 524-540. doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2024.2360913
Byrd, K., K. Kapadia, A. Rose, and R. S. John. 2025. “Balancing Security and Intrusiveness: Perceptions of Countermeasures in U.S. Commercial Facilities,” Risk Sciences 1: 100020. doi.org/10.1016/j.risk.2025.100020
Cui, J., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. 2016. “Cumulative Response to Sequences of Terror-Attacks Varying in Frequency and Trajectory,” Risk Analysis 36(12): 2272-2284. doi.org/10.1111/risa.12577
Cui, J., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. 2018. “Public Response to Near-Miss Nuclear Accident Scenarios Varying in Causal Attributions and Outcome Uncertainty,” Risk Analysis 38(5): 947-961. doi.org/10.1111/risa.12920
Dormady, N., T. Szelazek, and A. Rose. 2014. “The Potential Impact of an Anthrax Attack on Real Estate Prices and Foreclosures in Seattle," Risk Analysis 34(1): 187-201. doi.org/10.1111/risa.12059
Dixon, P., M. Rimmer, G. Wittwer, A. Rose, and N. Heatwole. 2017. “Economic Consequences of Terrorism and Natural Disasters: The Computable General Equilibrium Approach,” in A. Abbas, M. Tambe and D. von Winterfeldt (eds.), Improving Homeland Security Decisions, New York: Cambridge University Press 2017:158-192. doi.org/10.1017/9781316676714.008
Giesecke, J., W. J. Burns, A. Barrett, E. Bayrak, A. Rose, P. Slovic, and M. Suher. 2012. “Assessment of the Regional Economic Impacts of Catastrophic Events: A CGE Analysis of Resource Loss and Behavioral Effects of a Radiological Dispersion Device Attack Scenario,” Risk Analysis 32(4): 583-600. doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01567.x
Oladosu, G., A. Rose, and B. Lee. 2013. “Economic Impacts of Potential Foot and Mouth Disease Agro-terrorism in the United States: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Biothreats and Biodefense S12: 001. doi:10.4172/2157-2526.S12-001
Prager, F., D. Wei, and A. Rose. 2017. “Total Economic Consequences of an Influenza Outbreak in the United States,” Risk Analysis 37(1): 4-19. doi:10.1111/risa.12625
Rose, A. 2022. “Behavioral Consequences of Disasters: A Basis for Inclusion in Benefit-Cost Analysis,” Economics of Disasters and Climate Change 6: 213-23. doi.org/10.1007/s41885-022-00107-9
Rose, A. and B. Djavadi. 2025. “Behavioral Aspects of Population Mobility Following a Chemical, Biological, Radiologic or Nuclear Event,” International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 16:139-64. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13753-024-00609-y
Rose, A., G. Oladosu, B. Lee, and G. Beeler Asay. 2009. “The Economic Impacts of the 2001 Terrorist Attacks on the World Trade Center: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy 15(2): Article 6. doi.org/10.2202/1554-8597.1161
Rose, A., F. Prager, Z. Chen, and S. Chatterjee. 2017. Economic Consequence Analysis of Disasters: The E-CAT Software Tool. Singapore: Springer. doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-2567-9
Rosoff, H., R. S. John, W. Burns, and I. Maya. 2011. “Scenario Simulation Group Reactions to the Aftermath of the Great Shake-Out Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake,” Earthquake Spectra 27(2): 597-614. doi.org/10.1193/1.3574450
Rosoff, H., R. S. John, and F. Prager. 2012. “Flu, Risks, and Videotape: Escalation of Fear and Avoidance Behavior,” Risk Analysis 32(4): 729-743. doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01769.x
Rosoff, H., R. S. John, W. Burns, and R. Siko. 2012. “Structuring Uncertainty and Conflicting Objectives for Life or Death Decisions Following an Urban Biological Catastrophe,” Journal of Integrated Disaster Risk Management 2(1): 49-69. doi.org/10.5595/idrim.2012.0035 https://www.idrimjournal.com/article/11714.pdf
Rosoff, H., R. Siko, R. S. John, and W. J. Burns. 2013. “Should I Stay or Should I Go? An Experimental Study of Health and Economic Government Policies Following a Severe Biological Agent Release,” Environment, Systems, and Decisions 33(1): 121-137. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-012-9431-4
Walmsley, T., A. Rose, R. S. John, D. Wei, J. Hlávka, J. Machado, and K. Byrd. 2023. “Macroeconomic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic,” Economic Modeling 120: 106147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106147
Zhao, M., H. Rosoff, and R. S. John. 2019. “Media Disaster Reporting Effects on Public Risk Perception and Response to Escalating Tornado Warnings: A Natural Experiment,” Risk Analysis 39(3): 535-552. doi.org/10.1111/risa.13205
Posted on October 8, 2026