CREATE Reports Published in Earthquake Spectra

Earthquake Spectra, the leading journal in the earthquake field, published a special issue on the California ShakeOut Exercise. Four of the reports (below) were produced by CREATE researchers.


The ShakeOut Scenario: A Hypothetical Mw7.8 Earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault
Keith Porter, Lucile Jones, Dale Cox, James Goltz, Ken Hudnut, Dennis Mileti, Sue Perry, Daniel Ponti, Michael Reichle, Adam Z. Rose, Charles R. Scawthorn, Hope A. Seligson, Kimberley I. Shoaf, Jerry Treiman, and Anne Wein

ABSTRACT: In 2008, an earthquake-planning scenario document was released by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and California Geological Survey that hypothesizes the occurrence and effects of a Mw7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was created by more than 300 scientists and engineers. Fault offsets reach 13 m and up to 8 m at lifeline crossings. Physics-based modeling was used to generate maps of shaking intensity, with peak ground velocities of 3 m/sec near the fault and exceeding 0.5 m/sec over 10,000 km2. A custom HAZUS®MH analysis and 18 special studies were performed to characterize the effects of the earthquake on the built environment. The scenario posits 1,800 deaths and 53,000 injuries requiring emergency room care. Approximately 1,600 fires are ignited, resulting in the destruction of 200 million square feet of the building stock, the equivalent of 133,000 single-family homes. Fire contributes $87 billion in property and business interruption loss, out of the total $191 billion in economic loss, with most of the rest coming from shake-related building and content damage ($46 billion) and business interruption loss from water outages ($24 billion). Emergency response activities are depicted in detail, in an innovative grid showing activities versus time, a new format introduced in this study.

Economic Impacts of the ShakeOut Scenario
Adam Rose, Dan Wei, and Anne Wein

ABSTRACT: For the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario, we estimate $68 billion in direct and indirect business interruption (BI) and $11 billion in related costs in addition to the $113 billion in property damage in an eight-county Southern California region. The modeled conduits of shock to the economy are property damage and lifeline service outages that affect the economy’s ability to produce. Property damage from fire is 50% greater than property damage from shaking because fire is more devastating. BI from water service disruption and fire each represent around one-third of total BI losses because of the long duration of service outage or long restoration and reconstruction periods. Total BI losses are 4.3% of annual gross output in the affected region, an impact far larger than most conventional economic recessions. These losses are still much lower than they potentially could be due to the resilience of the economy.

Economic Resilience Lessons from the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario 
Anne Wein, M.EERI and Adam Rose, M.EERI 

ABSTRACT: Following a damaging earthquake, “business interruption" (BI)–reduced production of goods and services–begins and continues long after the ground shaking stops. Economic resilience reduces BI losses by making the best use of the resources available at a given point in time (static resilience) or by speeding recovery through repair and reconstruction (dynamic resilience), in contrast to mitigation that prevents damage in the first place. Economic resilience is an important concept to incorporate into economic loss modeling and in recovery and contingency planning. Economic resilience framework includes the applicability of resilience strategies to production inputs and output, demand- and supply-side effects, inherent and adaptive abilities, and levels of the economy. We use our resilience framework to organize and share strategies that enhance economic resilience, identify overlooked resilience strategies, and present evidence and structure of resilience strategies for economic loss modelers. Numerous resilience strategies are compiled from stakeholder discussions about the ShakeOut Scenario (Jones et al. 2008). Modeled results of ShakeOut BI sector losses reveal variable effectiveness of resilience strategies for lengthy disruptions caused by fire-damaged buildings and water service outages. Resilience is a complement to mitigation and may, in fact, have cost and all-hazards advantages.

Scenario Simulation Group Reactions to the Aftermath of the Great ShakeOut Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake 
Heather Rosoff, Richard John, William J. Burns, and Isaac Maya 

ABSTRACT: This paper demonstrates an innovative approach for learning about earthquake victims’ behavioral responses to an emergency situation in the immediate aftermath of an earthquake. Researchers developed a scenario following a magnitude 7.8 earthquake that leads to escalating complications described over eight episodes. Subjects were assigned to scenario simulation groups (SSG) and instructed to discuss how they would cope with problems as if they were experiencing the scenario. Subjects first discussed their reactions and potential decisions they might have to make as a group. They were then asked to individually record their behavioral intentions, cognitive reactions (concern) and emotional state (fear) in a survey instrument. Subjects’ responses were tracked over the eight episodes of the scenario. The SSG methodology yielded a more realistic understanding of how a respondent’s reactions and behavior change in the immediate aftermath of an earthquake. The implications of the SSG approach on disaster preparedness and response are discussed.