CREATE Security – Anticipating the Unprecedented (CSAU)

The Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Threats and Emergencies (CREATE) was established in the aftermath of 9/11 to support America’s need for cost-effective interventions against threats to homeland security. Since then, CREATE’s research has produced advanced models for the evaluation of the risks, costs and consequences of terrorism, accidents, and naturally occurring disasters. CREATE established an integrated, holistic and impartial approach for independent assessment of hazards that can cause catastrophic harm, with an international reputation for excellence in risk, economic and decision analysis.

Anticipating New Threats

CREATE Security – Anticipating the Unprecedented (CSAU) is CREATE’s new research initiative aimed at developing tools and analyses to better understand and mitigate emerging threats, including new technology, such as drones and AI that might be used to cause harm, and severe weather events, including storms, heat, droughts and fires. To address these unprecedented threats, CREATE will develop tools that examine and compare new risks and guide strategic interventions that make the nation safer.

An Integrated Research and Innovation Agenda

CSAU is an integrated program for research and innovation to identify and quantify new threats and compare counter measures that make the nation safer and more secure. We will incorporate Natural Language Processing (NLP), Values Focused Thinking (VFT), Large Language Models (LLM), Value of Control Analysis (VCA) and other modern techniques in ways that address the challenges of unprecedented threats. NLP tools will be designed to structure adversary motives, objectives and means from public data sources. VFT models will be developed to structure adversary values, objectives, and motivations. LLM and crowd sourcing tools will be utilized for comparative risk and probability assessment for both adversarial and naturally occurring threats. VCA will be integrated with economic models to assess the effectiveness of threat counter measures in terms of reduced losses. CREATE’s integrated approach for risk, economic and decision analysis makes it uniquely prepared to address the challenges of unprecedented threats.

From Research to Capability

CREATE incorporates the talent of 35 research fellows at USC along with universities and research institutes throughout America and abroad. CSAU will draw from this outstanding pool of expertise, along with the creative talents of their students, to identify, characterize, and analyze unprecedented threats. Our knowledge and focus on unprecedented threats provides a resource that can help the nation and world prepare for an uncertain future.

Why CREATE and USC

CREATE offers a rare foundation for this work. It was the Department of Homeland Security’s first University Center of Excellence and has spent more than two decades addressing the need for risk-based and cost-effective intervention to mitigate risks and reduce threats.

CREATE’s national and international network of scientists and faculty is anchored in Los Angeles, where wildfire, scarce water resources, extreme weather, infrastructure interdependence, and emerging technologies converge. The 2028 Olympic and Paralympic Games also provide a timely need for utilizing CREATE’s future research.

A Durable Component of CREATE’s Future

CSAU extends and complements CREATE’s two other initiatives: Securing Critical Infrastructure in the Age of AI (SCIAI) and Innovation for Security and Economic Prosperity (ISEP). Combined, CREATE’s integrated program of research and impact will focus on the nation’s emerging threats that risk catastrophic harm and the innovations that can make the nation safer.