Decision and Risk Management Methodology for PRND Resource Allocation for the State of California

Principal Investigator: Isaac Maya

Other Researchers: Samrat Chatterjee, Daniel Salazar, Carl Southwell, Adam Rose, Dan Wei


The goals of this effort are to develop and apply decision, risk analysis and economics consequence models and quantitative methodologies to support Preventive Radiological/Nuclear Detection (PRND) risk management and efficient resource allocation deployment and capability-building decisions.  The objectives are: 1) to provide a strategic approach for evaluating and optimizing the effectiveness of programs to protect the State of California against radiological and nuclear (RN) risks, and 2) to provide the tools, models and methodologies to help California’s PRND Taskforce assess the relative value of program alternatives.   The consequences of RN attacks in the State of California would be catastrophic.  However, defensive resources are finite, and not all potential defensive resource allocations have the same value.  California seeks a comprehensive and quantitative methodology to aid its PRND program in:  1) establishing prioritization for funding; and 2) determining how these assets will be distributed.  To facilitate the comprehensive comparison of risk and resource values, the State seeks a methodology that is compatible with and builds upon the previous quantitative Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) risk analysis methodology, which uses numerical scores for cross-comparison of attack threats, vulnerabilities and consequences, and resulting attack risks.