Economic Consequence and Resilience Analysis

The Economic Analysis theme area is focused on estimating consequences and costs of terrorism and natural hazards, as well as evaluating investment decisions in mitigation and resilience to reduce these risks.  These issues occur both at the level of an individual organization’s operational decisions and economy-wide through sectoral (supply-chain) interdependencies.

CREATE uses economics to develop techniques and metrics used for their analyses. Terrorist acts can have extensive negative consequences, beginning with death and injury, property damage, and ordinary direct business interruption.  However, negative impacts can be magnified greatly by a combination of ordinary multiplier or general equilibrium effects, cascading infrastructure system failures, and behavioral responses stemming from fear.  At the same time, extensive resilience exists or can be enhanced at all levels–individual households and businesses, markets, supply chains, and the economies of regions and the nation as a whole.  CREATE researchers empirically estimate consequences and risk reduction implementation costs..  At the microeconomic level, methods related to benefit-cost analysis in the econometric analysis, for individual projects, products or markets are frequently refined and used. At the macroeconomic level, computable general equilibrium and input-output models are typically refined and used. 

CREATE researchers have developed a comprehensive economic consequence analysis framework used primarily for macroeconomic evaluation of risk-based outcomes, while also utilizing a risk-informed social benefit-cost framework.  The frameworks have been applied to numerous macro and micro issues, such as sectoral terrorism risk assessments (e.g., cyber, ports, utilities), and to a wide range of threat categories (natural hazards,  bio-threats, terrorist attacks, technological accidents)and to numerous case studies of operational changes within businesses, infrastructure service providers and DHS components (e.g., cost-effectiveness of individual resilience tactics, border-crossing wait times reductions, terrorism countermeasure spillover effects on the business environment, electricity reliability, cyber threats, supply-chain vulnerability, location and migration decisions, post-disaster public assistance, and economic recovery).

Researchers

Adam Rose

Adam Rose is a Research Professor in the University of Southern California Sol Price School of Public Policy and a Research Fellow at CREATE. Previously, he held faculty…

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Eli Berman

Eli Berman is a professor in the Department of Economics at the University of California, San Diego. He is also a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic…

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Zhenhua Chen

Zhenhua is an assistant professor in City and Regional Planning (CRP) at the Knowlton School of Architecture at OSU. His research interest includes infrastructure planning and policy…

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Noah Dormady

Noah Dormady teaches and conducts research in the areas of applied public policy analysis, energy policy, environmental policy, economic resilience, and terrorism and…

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Peter B. Dixon

After working at the IMF and the Reserve Bank of Australia, Dixon joined the Australian government's IMPACT Project in 1975. At IMPACT he led the team…

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Jonathan Eyer

Jonathan Eyer is Research Assistant Professor in the USC Sol Price School of Public Policy, and a Research Fellow at CREATE. He received his Ph.D. in economics…

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Scott Farrow

Scott Farrow is a Professor in the Department of Economics at UMBC, a branch of the University of Maryland and a Research Fellow at CREATE. Previously Dr. Farrow…

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Fynnwin Prager

Fynn Prager is currently Assistant Professor of Public Administration at CSU Dominguez Hills, College of Business Administration and Public Policy…

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Bryan Roberts

Bryan Roberts is a senior economist at Econometrica, Inc. He was previously a senior economist at Nathan Associates. He is also an adjunct lecturer at George Washington University's…

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Terrie Walmsley is a Visiting Professor in USC's Economics Department and the Chief Economist at IMPACT LLC, a firm that provides global economic analysis to government… 

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Dan Wei

Dan Wei is Research Associate Professor in the USC Sol Price School of Public Policy, and a Research Fellow at CREATE. She has been active in research in economic…

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Sample Publications

Sample Papers