Economic Consequence and Resilience Analysis

The Economic Analysis theme area is focused on estimating consequences and costs of terrorism and natural hazards, as well as evaluating investment decisions in mitigation and resilience to reduce these risks.  These issues occur both at the level of an individual organization’s operational decisions and economy-wide through sectoral (supply-chain) interdependencies.

CREATE uses economics to develop techniques and metrics used for their analyses. Terrorist acts can have extensive negative consequences, beginning with death and injury, property damage, and ordinary direct business interruption.  However, negative impacts can be magnified greatly by a combination of ordinary multiplier or general equilibrium effects, cascading infrastructure system failures, and behavioral responses stemming from fear.  At the same time, extensive resilience exists or can be enhanced at all levels–individual households and businesses, markets, supply chains, and the economies of regions and the nation as a whole.  CREATE researchers empirically estimate consequences and risk reduction implementation costs..  At the microeconomic level, methods related to benefit-cost analysis in the econometric analysis, for individual projects, products or markets are frequently refined and used. At the macroeconomic level, computable general equilibrium and input-output models are typically refined and used. 

CREATE researchers have developed a comprehensive economic consequence analysis framework used primarily for macroeconomic evaluation of risk-based outcomes, while also utilizing a risk-informed social benefit-cost framework.  The frameworks have been applied to numerous macro and micro issues, such as sectoral terrorism risk assessments (e.g., cyber, ports, utilities), and to a wide range of threat categories (natural hazards,  bio-threats, terrorist attacks, technological accidents)and to numerous case studies of operational changes within businesses, infrastructure service providers and DHS components (e.g., cost-effectiveness of individual resilience tactics, border-crossing wait times reductions, terrorism countermeasure spillover effects on the business environment, electricity reliability, cyber threats, supply-chain vulnerability, location and migration decisions, post-disaster public assistance, and economic recovery).

Adam Rose is a Research Professor in the University of Southern California Sol Price School of Public Policy and a Research Fellow at CREATE. Previously, he held faculty…

Eli Berman is a professor in the Department of Economics at the University of California, San Diego. He is also a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic…

Zhenhua is an assistant professor in City and Regional Planning (CRP) at the Knowlton School of Architecture at OSU. His research interest includes infrastructure planning and policy…

Noah Dormady teaches and conducts research in the areas of applied public policy analysis, energy policy, environmental policy, economic resilience, and terrorism and…

After working at the IMF and the Reserve Bank of Australia, Dixon joined the Australian government's IMPACT Project in 1975. At IMPACT he led the team…

Jonathan Eyer is Research Assistant Professor in the USC Sol Price School of Public Policy, and a Research Fellow at CREATE. He received his Ph.D. in economics…

Scott Farrow is a Professor in the Department of Economics at UMBC, a branch of the University of Maryland and a Research Fellow at CREATE. Previously Dr. Farrow…

Fynn Prager is currently Assistant Professor of Public Administration at CSU Dominguez Hills, College of Business Administration and Public Policy…

Bryan Roberts is a senior economist at Econometrica, Inc. He was previously a senior economist at Nathan Associates. He is also an adjunct lecturer at George Washington University's…

Terrie Walmsley is a Visiting Professor in USC's Economics Department and the Chief Economist at IMPACT LLC, a firm that provides global economic analysis to government… 

Dan Wei is Research Associate Professor in the USC Sol Price School of Public Policy, and a Research Fellow at CREATE. She has been active in research in economic…

• Sue Wing, I. and A. Rose. “Economic Consequence Analysis of Electric Power Infrastructure Disruptions: An Analytical General Equilibrium Approach,” Energy Economics, forthcoming. 
• Wei, D., Z. Chen and A. Rose. “Evaluating the Role of Resilience in Recovering from Major Port Disruptions: A Multi-Regional Analysis,” Papers in Regional Science, forthcoming.
• Rose, A., P. Ganderton, J. Eyer, D. Wei, R. Bostic and D. von Winterfeldt. “The Design of a Deductible/Credit System for Post-Disaster Public Assistance,” Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, forthcoming.
• Nagamatsu, S., A. Rose and J. Eyer. 2020. “Return Migration and Decontamination after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accidents,” Risk Analysis 40(4): 800-17.
• Dormady, N., A. Roa-Henriquez, and A. Rose. 2019. “Economic Resilience of the Firm: A Production Theory Approach,” International Journal of Production Economics 208: 446-60. 
• Eyer, J. and A. Rose. 2019. “Mitigation and Resilience Tradeoffs for Electricity Outages,” Economics of Disasters and Climate Change 3(1): 61-77.
• Farrow, S. and A. Rose. 2018. “Welfare Analysis:  Bridging the Partial and General Equilibrium Divide for Policy Analysis,” Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis 9(1): 67-83.
• Prager, F. Z. Chen, and A. Rose. 2018. “Estimating and Comparing Economic Consequences of Multiple Threats:  A Reduced-Form   Computable General Equilibrium Approach,” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 31: 45-57.
• Xie, W., A. Rose, S. Li, J. He., N. Li, T. Ali, T., and W. Wei.  2018. “Dynamic Economic Resilience and Economic Recovery from Disasters:  A Quantitative Assessment,” Risk Analysis 38(6): 1306-18.
• Eyer, J., R. Dinterman, N. Miller, and A. Rose. 2018. “The Effect of Disasters on Migration Destinations: Evidence from Hurricane Katrina,” Economics of Disasters and Climate Change 2(1): 91-106.
• Rose, A., M. Avetisyan, H. Rosoff, W. Burns, P. Slovic, and O. Chan. 2017. “The Role of Behavioral Responses in the Total Economic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Air Travel Targets,” Risk Analysis 37(7): 1403-18
• Prager, F., D. Wei, and A. Rose. 2017. “Total Economic Consequences of an Influenza Outbreak in the United States,” Risk Analysis 37(1): 4-19. 
• Chen, Z., A. Rose, F. Prager, and S. Chatterjee. 2017. “Economic Consequences of Aviation System Disruptions:  A Reduced-Form Computable General Equilibrium Analysis,” Transportation Research A, 95: 207–226.