Estimating the Likelihood of Terrorism Events and Public Response

Principal Investigator: Richard John


This research project has two primary objectives:  (1) Develop methods to estimate the likelihood of terrorism events (attack modes), and (2) Develop methods to predict both immediate and long-term public response to various terrorism events.  During Year 3 we made progress on both of these objectives by focusing on the decisions faced by terrorist leaders planning attacks, and on the decisions faced by U. S. residents following an attack directed toward the United States.  In each case, we developed methods to identify the motivations and beliefs upon which decisions for future action would be based.