Intelligence and Risk Analysis

Principal Investigator: Detlof von Winterfeldt

Other Investigators: Henry Willis, Genevieve Lester


The purpose of this project was to foster a closer collaboration between the risk analysts and intelligence analysts. In the past work of CREATE and at DHS, intelligence analysts were primarily used as subject matter experts (SMEs) to provide probability estimates related to the terrorists’ choice of modes of attack, targets, and the likelihood of success at various stages of an attack. While these efforts had some success, members of the intelligence community felt that there could be better uses for their participation in risk analysis projects. The intent was to design the risk-intelligence interaction as a truly collaborative effort. The project was done in collaboration with the Homeland Security Institute (HIS) and the Center for Peace and Security Studies at Georgetown University.