Rose, A., K. Donaghy, T. Friesz, M. Ferris, T. Clower, and R. John. 2024. Economic Viability, Resilience, and Sustainability of Logistics Systems in Post-Conflict Zones, Final Report to the US Department of Defense Minerva Program, CREATE, USC, Los Angeles, CA.
The primary objective of this research is to help economies rebound and grow by addressing the theoretical and practical question of how logistics systems and the regions they serve can be made economically viable, resilient, and sustainable in the aftermath of armed conflict. We focus in particular on the role of logistics operations centers and transportation networks connecting them in this pursuit.
To meet this research objective, we have developed an empirically testable theory of infrastructure planning and design for logistics systems. This theory accounts for the evolution and sustainability of these systems, allows for correction of inefficiencies and resilient responses to threats, and accounts for the strategic behaviors and socioeconomic considerations among competing stakeholders.
We have demonstrated the workings of this theory with a modeling framework that will significantly advance the state-of-the-art of analyzing systems of systems with complex adaptive nonlinear dynamics. The analytical framework at its core consists of a set of integrated models that embody principles of dynamic spatial general equilibrium, mathematical programming, and game theory. These have been supplemented by modules of expert elicitation of logistics systems stakeholder objectives and constraints, investment analysis, and resilience analysis.
The modeling framework has been calibrated with a database constructed expressly to characterize the underlying population and economic structure of our testbed, Iraq, but our research has more general applicability. The integrated models of this framework are solved with robust algorithms of mathematical optimization supported by several modules relating to investment analysis, resilience, and governance.
The framework will be evaluated with state-of-the-art methods of validation. It will be employed in simulation experiments to explore issues of economic viability, resilience, and sustainability. The operational modeling framework will be embedded in a prototype planning and decision support system to enable others to explore additional scenarios.
CREATE Director and USC Price School research professor, Adam Rose (Photo by Tom Queally)
Additionally, key questions addressed by our research include:
- What is the optimal configuration of logistic systems to support alternative viable, stable, resilient, and sustainable economic development paths in post-conflict zones?
- How does a diverse set of decision-makers establish objectives for these systems in support of development goals? What are the trade-offs in achieving various objectives?
- How can civilian and military objectives be harmonized to capitalize on multiple uses and synergies (e.g., seaports or airfields serving civilian passengers, freight, military hardware, and emergency supplies)?
- What are the major constraints on achieving these objectives?
- How can an improved decision-making framework help improve the efficiency of infrastructure investments and help ensure the viability, stability, resilience, and sustainability of the host economies?
- What is the optimal spatial configuration and governance structure for implementing improved planning of the timing and spatial alignment of logistic hubs and networks (e.g., special-purpose districts)?
- How should the build-out of logistics systems’ infrastructure be staged over space and time to achieve regional development goals?
Our analysis also factors in issues that are of increasing importance in the region of study or that are adapted from experiences elsewhere. These issues include continued decline in costs of some transportation modes; increase in transportation speed; trends in the spatial spread of warehouses and other storage facilities; the multiple-purpose nature of seaports, airports, and highways; port regionalization to transshipment centers; advantages of agglomeration effects; and broader assessment of investment beyond ordinary project analysis to the general equilibrium level, including supply-chain bottleneck, spillover, and synergistic effects.