CREATE’s researchers develop and apply advanced analytic methods for guiding resource allocations to defend against terrorism, as well as catastrophic natural and human-caused disasters.
The risk of intentional attacks from terrorism is fundamentally different from other types of hazards, like accidents or acts of nature, as intelligent and adaptable adversaries will change offensive strategies and adapt their tactics to bypass or circumvent defenses. Approaches to risk assessment and management that may work well in other contexts (e.g., protecting against accidents or acts of nature) can fail to correctly quantify the risks from adversaries. Our techniques anticipate intelligent adversaries who may change their tactics to bypass or circumvent defenses.
In close connection with the Decision Analysis theme, our research team also extends probabilistic risk analysis, game theory, scenario analysis, and expert elicitation of risks and uncertainties to address the multi-attribute nature of catastrophic risk resulting from terrorism, natural disasters, and human caused accidents.
Supporting DHS and other government agencies, we develop new analytic methods that address contemporary risks issues across multiple threat domains. CREATE combines Risk Management and Operations Research to develop new methods that serve three needs:
1. Calculation of benefits of investments against both current risks and anticipated shifts in risks as new threats emerge.
2. Risk management systems designed to achieve multiple goals.
3. Systematic deterrence and dissuasion to influence adversary decisions, so terrorists act in ways that are easier to detect and more difficult to succeed.
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