Risk Perception and Estimating Threat Probability Using Random Utility Models of Terrorist Objectives and Motivations

Principal Investigator: Richard John

Other Researchers: Heather Rosoff


This research project has two ongoing primary objectives:  (1) Develop methods to estimate the likelihood of terrorism events (attack modes), and (2) Develop methods to predict both immediate and long-term public response to various terrorism events. During Year 4 we made progress on both of these objectives by focusing on the decisions faced by terrorist leaders planning attacks, and on the decisions faced by U. S. residents following an attack directed toward the United States.  In each case, we developed methods to identify the motivations and beliefs upon which decisions for future action would be based.  Research progress and accomplishments made throughout Year 4 are described in the subsequent section.