Funded by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, Adam Rose led a project that developed and demonstrated a modeling and simulation prototype “Nuclear Economic Consequence Analysis Tool (NECAT)” to represent effects on critical infrastructure of a nuclear detonation and subsequent effects on an economic model consisting of a generic set of equations describing the economic operation of a city and of the nation in which it is located.
This prototype consists of:
a) the system of generic equations;
b) datasets with which to determine the values of coefficients in these equations for specific cities and associated nations;
c) software to read the data and generate the coefficient values for a city and its nation chosen by the user from a menu containing a large number of options;
d) software to translate nuclear detonation scenarios into effects on critical infrastructure, including changes in the coefficients in the equations due to the effect of detonation;
e) software to solve the equations to generate the economic implications of disruption of critical infrastructure.
This prototype shall operate on a suitable DoD computational platform. This effort leverages previously developed models for interdependent infrastructures performance subject to nuclear attacks: TINA and economic models ECAT and GRAD-ECAT.
The project demonstrates NECAT’s ability to provide estimates of impacts on gross domestic product (GDP) and employment on a sectoral basis for the directly affected regional economy. This includes the development of a prototype of an integrated infrastructure and economic impact model.
In addition to Adam Rose, the project team includes: Peter Dixon (PI of sub-contract); David Walter (Leidos, Inc.), Alexis Kwasinski (University of Pittsburgh), Ben Leibowicz (University of Texas).
Publications
Rose, A. and B. Djavadi. 2025.“Behavioral Aspects of Population Mobility Following a Chemical,
Biological, Radiologic or Nuclear Event,” International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, electronic
preprint. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13753-024-00609-y