
Benefit–cost analysis is a critical tool for decision-making in the public sector. However, such analyses are challenging when one of the benefits is deterrence of adaptive adversaries, as in counter-terrorism. In a paper recently published in Decision Analysis, Richard John and co-authors Robin Dillon, William Burns, and Nicholas Scurich developed a framework for calculating the value of deterrence investments aimed at mitigating attacks from adaptive adversaries.
The framework partitions countermeasure benefits into three components:
- (1) threat reduction (deterrence),
- (2) vulnerability reduction, and
- (3) consequence mitigation.
In each case, the methodology represents benefits from:
- (1) changes in attack probability (threat reduction from deterrence),
- (2) changes in detection probability (vulnerability reduction), and
- (3) changes in the distribution of attack outcomes (consequence mitigation).
The methodology explicitly accounts for deterrence, vulnerability reduction, and consequence mitigation in benefit–cost analyses. It provides quantifiable insights into how countermeasures reduce terrorism risk. The authors demonstrate its application to counter-measures to protect commercial aircraft against man-portable air defense systems.
The research was funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.
CREATE’s research on adaptive adversaries includes:
- Defender–attacker decision tree analysis to combat terrorism, Garcia RJ and Detlof von Winterfeldt. Risk Analysis
- Decision analysis by proxy for the adaptive adversary, Heather Rosoff and Richard John
- Methods for addressing the unpredictable real-world element in security, Jingshu Curi, Thanh Nguyen, James Pita, and Richard John
- Behavioral Determinants of Target Shifting and Deterrence in an Analog Cyber-Attack Game, Sarah Kusumastuti, Jim Blythe, Heather Rosoff, and Richard John, Risk Analysis
- Attacker deterrence and perceived risk in a Stackelberg security game, Garret Ridinger, Richard John, Michael McBride, Nicholas Scurich, Risk Analysis
- Improving resource allocation strategies against human adversaries in security games: An extended study, Rong Yang, Christopher Kiekintveld, Fernando Ordonez, Milind Tambe, and Richard John, Artificial Intelligence Journal
- On the Disclosure of Defensive Posture: Adversarial Belief Formation and Target Selection Decisions, Kyle Hunt, Sule Guney, Jun Zhuang, and Richard John
- Survey of Literature on Strategic Decision Making in the Presence of Adversaries, Erim Kardes and Randolph Hall
- Robust Stochastic Games and Application to Counter-Terrorism, Erim Kardes
Other CREATE research on MANPAD countermeasures includes:
- Should We Protect Commercial Airplanes Against Surface-to-Air Missile Attacks by Terrorists?, Detlof von Winterfeldt and Terrence O’Sullivan. Decision Analysis
- External Terrorist Threats to Civilian Airliners: A Summary Risk Analysis of MANPADs, Other Ballistic Weapons Risks, Future Threats, and Possible Countermeasures Policies, Terrence O’Sullivan
Posted January 28, 2025